XE: XBT / AUD Currency Chart. Bitcoin to Australian Dollar ...

Transfer AUD To PHP Currency Online

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Australians, you need to start buying as much crypto as you can.

I’m Australian, this isn’t meant to be an alarmist or sensationalist post, but the economic situation in our country is a lot more serious than most of us think.
First off, the current economic situation.
Simply put, our economy is fucked. Our housing market is dangerously overleveraged and because of policies by our government at the time, we never experienced the correction the US and most of the rest of the world did during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. And now the chickens are coming home to roost. Australians are up to their eyeballs in debt, almost half of the housing loans are interest only, it’s the reason the Reserve Bank of Australia hasn’t raised the interest rates since 2016. Because as soon as they do, even by 0.01%, tens of thousands of Australians are going to default on their mortgages. It’s no secret that our housing market is one of the most expensive in the world, and anyone living in our country already knows this. The market value of Australian homes is 4 times the GDP of the country. Our housing market is beyond the point of saving and the bubble is about to pop. And while our mainstream media is trying to convince us that it will deflate slowly, history paints a different picture.
And that’s just the start of our problems. It’s no secret that China is our biggest trading partner. We rely on China more than any other developed country in the world. And what is currently happening on the greater global stage? Our most important military ally has engaged in a trade war with China, and the effects of that trade war are starting to be felt. Chinese stocks are in freefall, and that’s only going to be the beginning of the negative effects from Trump’s hardline approach to dealing with China. It doesn’t take a genius to see that this is going to have a devastating effect on our economy.
Our biggest trading partner is having a financial gunfight with the USA, which is going to result in them buying less of our stuff. And still that isn’t the end of it. Mining is down. Commodities prices are down. Our manufacturing sector is almost dead. The only thing we have going for us at the moment is agriculture and that can’t prop up the entire economy. You wanna turn white? Read this article from last year. Our economy is teetering on the precipice.
You think I’m being dramatic? Well even the Australian MSM can no longer ignore it. With articles like this appearing almost on the daily. Our dollar is in serious trouble, anyone who knows the slightest bit about TA go look at the graphs in that article. Our country is in serious economic trouble. And we don’t know shit about it because our media is a duopoly that makes most of its money from their real estate arms. All signs are pointing to our dollar about to be worth a hell of a lot less than it currently is.
What can we do?
Since this is the crypto subreddit the solution to this impending economic shitstorm should be painfully obvious. Buy fucking Bitcoin. Not the solution for the country, for you. The country isn’t going to do shit for anyone of us except saddle us with debt and a cooked economy that is going to take generations to get out of, if ever. So we should be diversifying. Sure buying gold probably isn’t a stupid idea either, but if you think that is proof against state intervention, read a history book. Even then, gold still needs to be converted into cash to be useful, and anyone paying attention can see that Australia is gearing up for a war on cash that borders on tyrannical. The only way for us as individuals to protect our wealth at the moment is to convert it into cryptocurrency.
But Bitcoin is low at the moment!
No shit. But if you think it’s going to stay that way you are 1. In the wrong subreddit, and 2. No paying attention to the macro factors of crypto. Wall St is gearing up to enter. The bank that runs the world is getting involved. And not just American banks. Bitcoin may be low now but if you know anything about market cycles, you know that it’ll be back. Here is a good comparison of BTC a few years ago as opposed to now. It’s almost at the point where it’s irresponsible not to be buying bitcoin, and I’m not the only one that holds this opinion. Worst case scenario, bitcoin falls to USD 3k. What do you think is going to happen after that? Bitcoin and crypto aren’t going anywhere and you’re kidding yourself if you think that the value of bitcoin isn’t going to be much higher in the years to come.
Of course the RBA is telling people that Bitcoin is dead, probably because they don’t want Australians to dump their soon to be worthless fiat currency. In fact one any given day you’ll see a bunch of anti-crypto propaganda on our MSM. The same MSM that has been telling us all to buy as many houses as we can for the last 20 years. The same MSM that up until now hasn’t said shit about the direction our economy is heading in.
The writing’s on the wall people. If we keep our wealth in AUD it’s going to be worth considerably less sooner rather than later. Our property sector is going to crash, our dollar is going to crash, our personal wealth is going to be stripped away from us. If you want to avoid this, if you want to protect your wealth, ensure a future that isn’t financial hardship, then we really only have one choice. Buy bitcoin. Personally I am converting half my pay each week into BTC and just holding it. Not putting it into alts. Just btc. I’d advise you do the same as well. I understand that this sounds super risky. But if you read the articles I’ve linked to in this post I’m sure you’ll see that the only risky move is doing nothing. This isn’t a joke or a false alarm. The notion that our economy has always been fine up until now isn’t valid anymore. If you want to protect your personal wealth and purchasing power in the next few years, you really should be buying as much btc as you can while it is this low. This is what crypto is for, avoiding the negative financial downturns of specific countries. It’s a globally traded commodity that is accessible by anyone with a computer. Our economy tanking isn’t going to affect the price one bit.
I hope some of this has been useful. Listen to me, don’t listen to me, it’s your choice. But this is the digital age, there’s no excuse for ignorance anymore.
submitted by Sendmyabar to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Tax Megathread

BitcoinAus Tax Megathread

DISCLAIMER

The purpose of this post is to provide crypto-currency investors and traders with a basic understanding of the laws and prinipals regarding tax treatment for crypto-currency in Australia (including but no limited to Bitcoin) as it applies to individuals, not businesses.
At this point in time, this post does not attempt to explain tax treatment for businesses, or when trading in bitcoin is and is not classified as a business.
This post is a work in progress and will be updated and improved on an ongoing basis.
The Author(s) of this post are not tax accountants. Any advice given and/or any facts presented are based solely on our personal understanding of the rules and determinations made by the ATO and do not constitute financial advice. Please feel free to message any of the moderator team should you wish to dispute any of the facts or wording listed here. Please also feel free to offer suggestions and/or improvements that can be made in the comment section.
When in doubt, you should always seek professional advice from a tax accountant.

Captial Gains Tax

First and foremost, lets look at this exerpt from the ATO brief titled "Tax treatment of crypto-currencies in Australia" [1]
Transacting with bitcoin is akin to a barter arrangement, with similar tax consequences. Our view is that bitcoin is neither money nor a foreign currency, and the supply of bitcoin is not a financial supply for goods and services tax (GST) purposes. Bitcoin is, however, an asset for capital gains tax (CGT) purposes.
So this tells us two things.
1) Crypto-currencies are treated as assets for captial gains tax (CGT) purposes.
2) Crypto-currency trasnactions are treated as barter arrangements, with similar tax consequences.
Calculating capital gains tax (CGT) for your investments may sound daunting, but it is really very easy.
If you sell a capital asset, such as real estate or shares (or in our case, crypto-currencies), you usually make a capital gain or a capital loss. This is the difference between what it cost you to acquire the asset and what you receive when you dispose of it.[2]
You need to report capital gains and losses in your income tax return and pay tax on your capital gains. Although it's referred to as capital gains tax (CGT), this is actually part of your income tax, not a separate tax.[2] This means that the amount of CGT you pay will depend on your own marginal tax rate.
When you sell or otherwise dispose of an asset, it's called a capital gains tax (CGT) event. This is the point at which you make a capital gain or loss.[2]
Lets work through an example; Alice purchased 1BTC at a price of $6000 AUD per BTC in Janurary of 2016. Over the ourse of the year, the price of Bitcoin increased to $10000 AUD. Alice then sold 0.5BTC in December 2017 at a price of $10000 per BTC. Therefore the total amount gained from the sale was $5000. It is at this point in time that a CGT event is generated. Alice must now calucalte the profit for this CGT event so that she may declare it on her 2017/2018 tax return (As this is financial year that the CGT event occured).
The first step is to calculate the cost base for the 0.5BTC that was sold. In our example this is easy, Alice originally paid $6000 for 1BTC, which gives us a cost base of $3000 for 0.5BTC. The amount Alice received from sale of the 0.5BTC was $5000, so she subtracts the cost base from the sale price ($5000 - $3000) which leaves her with $2000 profit. This is the amount that Alice will record on her 2017/2018 tax return as a Capital Gain.

Other considerations

There are a number of other considerations to make when calculating profit for a CGT event.
  • The ATO offer individuals a 50% discount on capital gains when the disposed asset has been held for a period of time that exceeds 12 months. The way to make this calculation is as follows; Subtract the cost base from the capital proceeds, deduct any capital losses, then reduce by the relevant discount percentage. (50% for individuals). So in our above example, Alice will only be taxed on a $1000 capital gain had she held the Bitcoin for > 12 months. [3]. Alice would still need to declare the full capital gain on her tax return, but she would select the 'discount' method when performing the calculation. [9].
  • Any incidental costs associated with purchasing, holding, moving, and/or disposing of an asset may also be deducted from the capital proceeds prior to calculating the capital gain. The ATO provide the following example [4]
    The following example (with values inserted) illustrates how to calculate a capital gain:
    Capital proceeds (sale price) $10,210
    Less Cost base:
    • Purchase price $6,000
    • Incidental costs of purchase (Brokerage fee and GST) $100
    • Incidental costs of sale (Brokerage fees and GST) $110 $6,210
    Capital gain $4,000
    Further details for calculating the cost base, and reduced cost base of an asset can be found here.
  • Any capital losses may be carried forward from previous tax years and used to offset capital gains (if any) in the current tax year. [8]
  • It's important to note that losses are applied to any gains before applying the CGT discount. So if you have a carried forward loss of $1,000 and make a gain eligible for the discount of $2,000, your net gain is ($2,000 - $1,000) * 50% = $500.

Bitcoin as a personal use asset

Where you use bitcoin to purchase goods or services for personal use or consumption, any capital gain or loss from disposal of the bitcoin will be disregarded (as a personal use asset) provided the cost of the bitcoin is $10,000 or less. [1]
Personal use assets are CGT assets, other than collectables, used or kept mainly for the personal use or enjoyment of you or your associates. [5]
Personal use assets include:
  • boats
  • furniture
  • electrical goods
  • household items
Bitcoin that is kept or used mainly to make purchases of items for personal use or consumption ordinarily will be kept or used mainly for personal use. Bitcoin that is kept or used mainly for the purpose of profit-making or investment, or to facilitate purchases or sales in the course of carrying on business is not used or kept mainly for personal use. [6]
The ATO have released a Ruling Compendium to accompany TD2014/25EC. One section of this compendium provides clarification on when bitcoin will be a personal use asset.[10] (Item 10)
Item 10 section 1 states the following:
A taxpayer who purchases bitcoin with the intention of holding onto them for a number of years so that they appreciate in value and the profit can be spent in their retirement, is using the bitcoin for investment or profit making purposes and the bitcoin is not a personal use asset.[10]
Further, Item 11 section 3 states the following:
All of the facts and circumstances regarding the acquisition, use and disposal of the bitcoin are relevant to determining whether the bitcoin are a personal use asset.[10]
I urge everyone to read the Compendium, specifically items 10 and 11. These clarifications mean that bitcoin cannot be disposed of as a 'personal use asset' if they were bought or held with the intention of making a profit.

Bitcoin barter arrangements & trading crypto pairs

Transacting with bitcoin is akin to a barter arrangement. [1]
In its simplest form, bartering involves the direct exchange of goods or services for other goods or services without reference to money or a money value. [7]
Early we discussed the fact that Bitcoin and other crypto-currencies are treated and assets, and not currencies. What this means is that whenever you acquire crypto-currency, you are acquiring an asset. This means that trading crypto pairs is essentially a barter arrangement involving the disposal of one asset and an acquisition of a different asset. By definition, this means that you generate a CGT event each and every time you trade a crypto pair. The ATO law regarding barter arrangements tells us that you must assign an AUD value to the disposed asset as well as the acquired asset at the time of the trade. You must then calculate your capital gain or loss using these values.
As a general rule when valuing the consideration arising from barter or countertrade transactions, the ATO will accept a fair market value as adequately reflecting the money value or arm's length value, as applicable. In most cases, the ATO will accept as a fair market value, the cash price which the taxpayer would normally have charged a stranger for the services or for the sale of the goods or property. [7]

Citations

[1] Tax treatment of crypto-currencies in Australia https://www.ato.gov.au/misc/downloads/pdf/qc42159.pdf
[2] Captial Gains Tax https://www.ato.gov.au/General/Capital-gains-tax/
[3] Working out your capital gain https://www.ato.gov.au/General/Capital-gains-tax/Working-out-your-capital-gain-or-loss/Working-out-your-capital-gain/
[4] How to Calculate a Capital Gain or Loss http://www.educatedinvestor.com.au/pages/How-to-Calculate-a-Capital-Gain-or-Loss.html
[5] Personal use assets https://www.ato.gov.au/general/capital-gains-tax/cgt-assets-and-exemptions/#Personal_use_assets
[6] Tax determination - Is Bitcoin a 'CGT Asset' for the purposes of subsection 108-5(1) of the Income Tax Assessment Act 1997 ? http://law.ato.gov.au/atolaw/view.htm?DocID=TXD/TD201426/NAT/ATO/00001
[7] Barter arrangements http://law.ato.gov.au/atolaw/view.htm?docid=ITIT2668/NAT/ATO/00001
[8] Capital losses on shares and units https://www.ato.gov.au/General/Capital-gains-tax/Shares,-units-and-similar-investments/Capital-losses-on-shares-and-units/
[9] The discount method of calculating your capital gain https://www.ato.gov.au/General/Capital-gains-tax/Working-out-your-capital-gain-or-loss/Working-out-your-capital-gain/The-discount-method-of-calculating-your-capital-gain/
[10] TD 2014/25EC Ruling Compendium https://www.ato.gov.au/law/view/document?LocID=%22CTD%2FTD2014EC25%2FNAT%2FATO%2F00001%22&PiT=99991231235958

Additional documents and links:

Elements of the cost base and reduced cost base
Types of CGT events - specifically type A1 - Disposal
Cost Base
Selling an asset and other CGT events
Australian Crypto FAQ
Tax crime explained
ATO Interest and penalties
Record keeping for CGT
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Bitcoin as the Ultimate Haven from Hyperinflation: A Country By Country Analysis Of Worldwide Fiat Currency Inflation

Bitcoin as the Ultimate Haven from Hyperinflation: A Country By Country Analysis Of Worldwide Fiat Currency Inflation
https://cryptoiq.co/bitcoin-as-the-ultimate-haven-from-hyperinflation-a-country-by-country-analysis-of-worldwide-fiat-currency-inflation/
Bitcoin was created during the Great Recession that started in 2008, when the governments of the world printed trillions of dollars to bail out banks and corporations. Satoshi Nakamoto intended Bitcoin to be a decentralized form of money that could not be printed by governments at will. In the the Genesis Block Satoshi included the message “The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of the second bailout for banks.”
Fiat currencies continue to be the dominant form of global currency, but it seems logical that, if fiat currencies were to hyperinflate and collapse, Bitcoin would become the dominant global currency.
This is because Bitcoin can be sent instantly anywhere in the world and is cryptographically secure. It is easy enough to integrate Bitcoin into any e-commerce store or physical store, and the customers of the future will be able to send Bitcoin from their smartphones via QR codes. Therefore, if fiat currency becomes obsolete, Bitcoin could seamlessly take its place and keep the global economy running.
There has been plenty of hype that fiat currencies are collapsing, but this article will explore the current state of major fiat currencies in the world to ascertain the true situation. This is important information since the rate of fiat currency inflation by country is an important factor that will determine Bitcoin adoption rates and ultimately Bitcoin’s price.
United States’ Inflation Rate
The United States is perhaps the best place to start an analysis of global fiat inflation, since the USD is the world’s dominant fiat currency and perhaps the most stable long term. That being said, there is 2-3 percent annual inflation in the United States.
If we split the difference at a 2.5 percent annual inflation rate, it means $100,000 stored in a bank will lose a whopping $22,400 of value over the course of 10 years, corresponding to 22.4 percent inflation per 10 years. Therefore, even in the United States, saving money long term seems impractical, and this essentially forces people to risk their savings by investing in the hopes that the money earned from investing will outpace inflation.
It appears inflation will only worsen in the United States since the national debt is approaching $22 trillion, with a budget deficit of $1 trillion per year and growing. This situation will likely lead to increased money printing, which would increase the inflation rate. Therefore, saving money in USD long term does not make financial sense. Bitcoin is an alternative way to store money long term, although Bitcoin has yet to mature and can be extremely volatile from year to year.
Euro (EUR) Inflation Rate Is 37.5 percent Relative To USD During The Last 10 Years
One of the primary global currencies besides the USD is the Euro (EUR). For the rest of this global analysis, fiat currencies will be compared to the USD exchange rate to determine inflation, but it must be kept in mind that the USD itself is inflating at the rate of 2 to 3 percent per year.
When the EUR launched in 1999, the exchange rate was one USD per 0.85 EUR. By 2002 the EUR weakened to 1.16 EUR per USD. The EUR then entered a period of vigorous strengthening, and the exchange rate fell to 0.64 EUR per USD by 2008. The Great Recession caused the EUR to begin weakening versus the USD long term, and currently each USD is worth 0.88 EUR. This represents 37.5 percent inflation relative to the USD in roughly 10 years.
Back to the storing money in a bank analogy, $100,000 of EUR stored over the past 10 years would have lost the EUR inflation rate + the USD inflation rate. With this sort of inflation rate it seems dangerous to store money in EUR long term.
It gets worse. The EUR is one of the top global fiat currencies, and there are many currencies doing worse than the EUR.
United Kingdom’s Pound Has 65 Percent Inflation Relative to USD in 11 Years
The United Kingdom (UK) is one of nine European Union (EU) countries that does not use the EUR, and eventually, the UK will leave the EU via the Brexit. However, the native Great Britain Pound (GBP) has done far worse than the Euro, with the exchange rate going from 0.48 GBP per USD in 2007 to 0.79 GBP per USD currently. This is 65 percent inflation relative to the USD during the past 11 years.
Canada’s Inflation Rate Is 45.2 Percent Relative to USD During the Last 7 Years
The United States’ neighbor to the north is similar to the United States in many respects. It is a fully developed and industrialized first world country. However the native fiat currency, the Canadian Dollar (CAD), has been experiencing severe inflation since the Great Recession. In 2011 1 USD was worth 0.95 CAD, and now the exchange rate is 1.36 CAD per USD. This represents 43.2 percent inflation relative to the USD since 2011, and of course, the USD has an underlying inflation rate as well of 16.2 percent during the last 7 years.
Even in the first world country of Canada, it is becoming impossible to save cash for retirement or even for short-term goals like buying a house, forcing people to invest in the risky stock market.
Mexico’s Inflation Rate Is 97.6 Percent Relative to the USD During Past 10 Years
Since the 2008 financial crisis, the exchange rate of the Mexican Peso (MXN) has gone from 10.12 MXN per USD to 20 MXN per USD. This represents 97.6 percent inflation relative to the USD, and USD inflation means the true Mexican inflation rate is well over 100 percent per 10 years. This sort of inflation rate ensures that people have to work their entire lives and can never retire, and overall, this sort of inflation can cause the entire economy of Mexico to struggle. Bitcoin seems like an obvious alternative to holding MXN long term.
It is quite shocking that a country bordering the United States has such high inflation, yet the mainstream media never mentions it.
Russia Has 194 Percent Inflation Relative to USD Since the 2008 Great Recession
Russia is a global superpower, with a gross domestic product (GDP) of $1.58 trillion versus the United States’ $19.39 trillion GDP. Despite being a superpower, the native currency of Russia, the Russian Ruble (RUB), has gone from 23.48 RUB per USD in 2008 to 69.08 RUB per USD currently. This yields a 194 percent 10 year inflation rate relative to the USD. Clearly, the Great Recession that started in 2008 is a common point when fiat inflation accelerated in many countries around the world.
Japan’s Inflation Rate Is 46 Percent Relative to USD Over the Past 7 Years
Japan is a first-world country and has one of the most important stock markets in the world. The GDP of Japan is ranked number three in the world at nearly $5 trillion. However, its inflation rate is far higher than the United States, at least since 2011. In 2011, the exchange rate was 76 JPY per USD, but it has now risen to 111 JPY per USD, a 46 percent inflation rate relative to the USD over the past 7 years. This is actually almost exactly the same as Canada’s inflation rate.
China’s Inflation Is Only 14.4 Percent Relative to USD Since 2013, but China Tightly Controls the CNY
China is the second ranking economy in the world with a $12 trillion GDP. Its position as the number one trading partner of the United States gives it power to manipulate the exchange rate of its native currency the Chinese Yuan (CNY). The CNY actually strengthened greatly versus the USD until 2013, when China relaxed its control over the CNY exchange rate to make it more competitive in the global import and export markets. Chinese control over the CNY and therefore, control over the profitability of Chinese imports, is a primary reason for the “trade war” between China and the United States.
Since allowing the CNY to lose value relative to the USD, the exchange rate has gone from 6.04 CNY per USD in 2013 to 6.91 CNY per USD currently, a 14.4 percent inflation relative to the USD in 5 years. China is an outlier and has one of the lowest inflation rates relative to the USD.
Switzerland Has One Of The Lowest Inflation Rates At Less Than 5 percent Relative To The USD In 7 Years
Switzerland has remained independent of the European Union and does not use the EUR. Instead, it uses the Swiss Franc (CHF). The CHF actually strengthened greatly relative to the USD during the Great Recession, but the trend reversed in 2011. There was a rapid devaluation of the CHF relative to the USD from 0.76 CHF per USD to 0.94 CHF per USD during 2011. In The 7 years since then, the CHF has roughly five percent inflation relative to the USD and sits at 0.99 CHF per USD currently.
That being said, it cannot be forgotten that the USD itself is experiencing 2.5 percent inflation per year, so even countries that have low inflation rates relative to the USD have a significant inflation rate overall.
India Has Seen 79 Percent Inflation Relative to USD Since the Great Recession Began
India has the sixth highest GDP in the world at $2.6 trillion, and the second highest population at 1.34 billion. Since the Great Recession began, the Indian Rupee (INR) has gone from 39.18 per USD to 70.14 INR per USD, a 79 percent inflation relative to the USD in 11 years. Unfortunately, India is slowly making Bitcoin more illegal and could fully outlaw it, so citizens may have to break the law in the future in the event that inflation accelerates and Bitcoin becomes a preferred way to store money.
Indonesia Has 76 Percent Inflation Relative to the USD in Seven Years
Indonesia has a population of 265 million, not far behind the United States, but its GDP is 20 times less than the United States at $1 trillion. Part of the reason Indonesia’s economy is weaker may be that the native fiat currency, the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) has gone from 8,250 per USD in 2011 to 14,550 IDR per USD currently. This is 76 percent inflation relative to the USD in 7 years, around the same rate as India. However, Indonesia has banned Bitcoin as of 2018, which would make it difficult for citizens to use Bitcoin in the event inflation spirals out of control.
Brazil Has 152 percent Inflation Relative To USD In Past Seven Years, Despite Being the Strongest Economy In South America
Brazil has the most powerful economy in South America with a $2 trillion GDP. However, South America as a whole is experiencing out of control hyperinflation, and Brazil seems to be feeling the effects. The Brazilian Real (BRL) has gone from 1.55 per USD in 2011 to 3.91 BRL per USD currently. This is 152 percent inflation relative to the USD in 7 years. There does not appear to be any inflation safe haven in South America, and this could make South America a Bitcoin adoption hotspot.
Venezuela Has Ridiculous Inflation Around One million percent Per Year; Bolivar Collapsing
The end game of fiat currency inflation, if left unchecked, is currency collapse. A classic example of currency collapse is the situation in Venezuela, where the Cafe Con Leche Index suggests 400,000 percent inflation per year, although if a shorter term average is used it is 1 million percent per year or more. It would be shocking if the native fiat currency of Venezuela, the Sovereign Bolivar (VES), is still usable one year from now. Bitcoin is legal in Venezuela, and there is plenty of news which indicates people are abandoning the VES for Bitcoin.
South Korea Has Zero Inflation Relative to the USD
South Korea is considered a powerful economy relative to most of the world, with a GDP of $1.5 trillion despite the country’s small size. The South Korean Won (SKW) has essentially zero inflation relative to the USD long term aside from an exchange rate shock during the 2008 Great Recession. That being said, inflation is still a reality in South Korea since the USD has average inflation of 2.5 percent per year.
Australia Has 53 Percent Inflation Relative to the USD in Seven Years
Australia essentially has a continent to itself, but it is not isolated from the global fiat inflation crisis. The AUD actually strengthened massively versus the USD from 2001 to 2011. However, the trend reversed, and the exchange rate has gone from 0.93 AUD per USD in 2011 to 1.42 AUD per USD currently. This is 53 percent inflation relative to the USD in seven years.
Israel Has Zero Inflation Relative To USD Long Term
Israel is in the Middle East but does not have strong connections to the economy of the rest of the Middle East and, apparently, a different monetary policy than most of the rest of the world. Israel is only comparable to the United States, South Korea, and perhaps Switzerland when it comes to fiat currency since the Israeli New Shekel (ILS) has practically zero inflation relative to the USD long term although there are shorter term oscillations. Like the other countries listed with zero USD relative inflation, inflation still exists because the USD itself is inflating.
In total, there are 180 fiat currencies in the world, and here, we’re covering just 16 of them. We could keep going, but the trend is already clear. Even in major countries with powerful economies, inflation has become a serious issue, with some major countries experiencing 50-200 percent inflation relative to the USD over the past decade, and those numbers don’t even take in the 2.5 percent per year USD inflation underlying them.
It is possible that worldwide fiat inflation will accelerate due to the growing global debt crisis. That’s especially true if an economic recession occurs since that would force a rapid increase in money printing.
So we’re in a global situation that needs to be actively monitored. Even if the status quo is maintained long term, most of the world’s population cannot realistically save money for the future because it’s going to lose value over time. This is a major shift from our parents’ generation when saving money was the smart thing to do.
The good news is Bitcoin is waiting on the sidelines. It’s ready to become the global currency if fiat currency collapses worldwide. Even if fiat does not totally collapse, perhaps once Bitcoin matures and becomes more stable, it will be a good option for saving money long term since its value is independent of fiat inflation.
submitted by turtlecane to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Emergent Coding FAQ

Background reading
  1. https://youtu.be/-MMQUspVduo ELI5 with pictures.
  2. https://youtu.be/ZSkZxOJ5HPA Hello World using Emergent Coding
  3. https://codevalley.com/whitepaper.pdf This document treats Emergent coding from a philosophical perspective. It has a good introduction, description of the tech and is followed by two sections on justifications from the perspective of Fred Brooks No Silver Bullet criteria and an industrialization criteria.
  4. Mark Fabbro's presentation from the Bitcoin Cash City Conference which outlines the motivation, basic mechanics, and usage of Bitcoin Cash in reproducing the industrial revolution in the software industry.
  5. Building the Bitcoin Cash City presentation highlighting how the emergent coding group of companies fit into the adoption roadmap of North Queensland.
  6. Forging Chain Metal by Paul Chandler CEO of Aptissio, one of startups in the emergent coding space and which secured a million in seed funding last year.
  7. Bitcoin Cash App Exploration A series of Apps that are some of the first to be built by emergent coding and presented, and in the case of Cashbar, demonstrated at the conference.
  8. A casual Bitcoin Cash interview that touches on emergent coding, tech park, merchant adoption and much more.
How does Emergent Coding prevent developer capture?
A developer's Agent does not know what project they are contributing to and is thus paid for the specific contribution. The developer is controlling the terms of the payment rather than the alternative, an employer with an employment agreement.
Why does Emergent Coding use Bitcoin BCH?
  1. Both emergent coding and Bitcoin BCH are decentralized: As emergent coding is a decentralized development environment consisting of Agents providing respective design services, each contract received by an agent requires a BCH payment. As Agents are hosted by their developer owners which may be residing in one of 150 countries, Bitcoin Cash - an electronic peer-to-peer electronic cash system - is ideal to include a developer regardless of geographic location.
  2. Emergent coding will increase the value of the Bitcoin BCH blockchain: With EC, there are typically many contracts to build an application (Cashbar was designed with 10000 contracts or so). EC adoption will increase the value of the Bitcoin BCH blockchain in line with this influx of quality economic activity.
  3. Emergent coding is being applied to BCH software first: One of the first market verticals being addressed with emergent coding is Bitcoin Cash infrastructure. We are already seeing quality applications created using emergent coding (such as the HULA, Cashbar, PH2, vending, ATMs etc). More apps and tools supporting Bitcoin cash will attract more merchants and business to BCH.
  4. Emergent coding increases productivity: Emergent coding increases developer productivity and reduces duplication compared to other software development methods. Emergent coding can provide BCH devs with an advantage over other coins. A BCH dev productivity advantage will accelerate Bitcoin BCH becoming the first global currency.
  5. Emergent coding produces higher quality binaries: Higher quality software leads to a more reliable network.

1. Who/what is Code Valley? Aptissio? BCH Tech Park? Mining and Server Complex?
Code Valley Corp Pty Ltd is the company founded to commercialize emergent coding technology. Code Valley is incorporated in North Queensland, Australia. See https://codevalley.com
Aptissio Australia Pty Ltd is a company founded in North Queensland and an early adopter of emergent coding. Aptissio is applying EC to Bitcoin BCH software. See https://www.aptissio.com
Townsville Technology Precincts Pty Ltd (TTP) was founded to bring together partners to answer the tender for the Historic North Rail Yard Redevelopment in Townsville, North Queensland. The partners consist of P+I, Conrad Gargett, HF Consulting, and a self-managed superannuation fund(SMSF) with Code Valley Corp Pty Ltd expected to be signed as an anchor tenant. TTP answered a Townsville City Council (TCC) tender with a proposal for a AUD$53m project (stage 1) to turn the yards into a technology park and subsequently won the tender. The plan calls for the bulk of the money is to be raised in the Australian equity markets with the city contributing $28% for remediation of the site and just under 10% from the SMSF. Construction is scheduled to begin in mid 2020 and be competed two years later.
Townsville Mining Pty Ltd was set up to develop a Server Complex in the Kennedy Energy Park in North Queensland. The site has undergone several studies as part of a due diligence process with encouraging results for its competitiveness in terms of real estate, power, cooling and data.
  1. TM are presently in negotiations with the owners of the site and is presently operating under an NDA.
  2. The business model calls for leasing "sectors" to mining companies that wish to mine allowing companies to control their own direction.
  3. Since Emergent Coding uses the BCH rail, TM is seeking to contribute to BCH security with an element of domestic mining.
  4. TM are working with American partners to lease one of the sectors to meet that domestic objective.
  5. The site will also host Emergent Coding Agents and Code Valley and its development partners are expected to lease several of these sectors.
  6. TM hopes to have the site operational within 2 years.
2. What programming language are the "software agents" written in.
Agents are "built" using emergent coding. You select the features you want your Agent to have and send out the contracts. In a few minutes you are in possession of a binary ELF. You run up your ELF on your own machine and it will peer with the emergent coding and Bitcoin Cash networks. Congratulations, your Agent is now ready to accept its first contract.
3. Who controls these "agents" in a software project
You control your own Agents. It is a decentralized development system.
4. What is the software license of these agents. Full EULA here, now.
A license gives you the right to create your own Agents and participate in the decentralized development system. We will publish the EULA when we release the product.
5. What kind of software architecture do these agents have. Daemons Responding to API calls ? Background daemons that make remote connection to listening applications?
Your Agent is a server that requires you to open a couple of ports so as to peer with both EC and BCH networks. If you run a BCH full node you will be familiar with this process. Your Agent will create a "job" for each contract it receives and is designed to operate thousands of jobs simultaneously in various stages of completion. It is your responsibility to manage your Agent and keep it open for business or risk losing market share to another developer capable of designing the same feature in a more reliable manner (or at better cost, less resource usage, faster design time etc.). For example, there is competition at every classification which is one reason emergent coding is on a fast path for improvement.
It is worth reiterating here that Agents are only used in the software design process and do not perform any role in the returned project binary.
6. What is the communication protocol these agents use.
The protocol is proprietary and is part of your license.
7. Are the agents patented? Who can use these agents?
It is up to you if you want to patent your Agent the underlying innovation behind emergent coding is _feasible_ developer specialization. Emergent coding gives you the ability to contribute to a project without revealing your intellectual property thus creating prospects for repeat business; It renders software patents moot.
Who uses your Agents? Your Agents earn you BCH with each design contribution made. It would be wise to have your Agent open for business at all times and encourage everyone to use your design service.
8. Do I need to cooperate with Code Valley company all of the time in order to deploy Emergent Coding on my software projects, or can I do it myself, using documentation?
It is a decentralized system. There is no single point of failure. Code Valley intends to defend the emergent coding ecosystem from abuse and bad actors but that role is not on your critical path.
9. Let's say Electron Cash is an Emergent Coding project. I have found a critical bug in the binary. How do I report this bug, what does Jonald Fyookball need to do, assuming the buggy component is a "shared component" puled from EC "repositories"?
If you built Electron Cash with emergent coding it will have been created by combining several high level wallet features designed into your project by their respective Agents. Obviously behind the scenes there are many more contracts that these Agents will let and so on. For example the Cashbar combines just 16 high level Point-of-Sale features but ultimately results in more than 10,000 contracts in toto. Should one of these 10,000 make a design error, Jonald only sees the high level Agents he contracted. He can easily pinpoint which of these contractors are in breach. Similarly this contractor can easily pinpoint which of its sub-contractors is in breach and so on. The offender that breached their contract wherever in the project they made their contribution, is easily identified. For example, when my truck has a warranty problem, I do not contact the supplier of the faulty big-end bearing, I simply take it back to Mazda who in turn will locate the fault.
Finally "...assuming the buggy component is a 'shared component' puled from EC 'repositories'?" - There are no repositories or "shared component" in emergent coding.
10. What is your licensing/pricing model? Per project? Per developer? Per machine?
Your Agent charges for each design contribution it makes (ie per contract). The exact fee is up to you. The resulting software produced by EC is unencumbered. Code Valley's pricing model consists of a seat license but while we are still determining the exact policy, we feel the "Valley" (where Agents advertise their wares) should charge a small fee to help prevent gaming the catalogue and a transaction fee to provide an income in proportion to operations.
11. What is the basic set of applications I need in order to deploy full Emergent Coding in my software project? What is the function of each application? Daemons, clients, APIs, Frontends, GUIs, Operating systems, Databases, NoSQLs? A lot of details, please.
There's just one. You buy a license and are issued with our product called Pilot. You run Pilot (node) up on your machine and it will peer with the EC and BCH networks. You connect your browser to Pilot typically via localhost and you're in business. You can build software (including special kinds of software like Agents) by simply combining available features. Pilot allows you to specify the desired features and will manage the contracts and decentralized build process. It also gives you access to the "Valley" which is a decentralized advertising site that contains all the "business cards" of each Agent in the community, classified into categories for easy search.
If we are to make a step change in software design, inventing yet another HLL will not cut it. As Fred Brooks puts it, an essential change is needed.
12. How can I trust a binary when I can not see the source?
The Emergent Coding development model is very different to what you are use to. There are ways of arriving at a binary without Source code.
The Agents in emergent coding design their feature into your project without writing code. We can see the features we select but can not demonstrate the source as the design process doesn't use a HLL.
The trust model is also different. The bulk of the testing happens _before_ the project is designed not _after_. Emergent Coding produces a binary with very high integrity and arguably far more testing is done in emergent coding than in incumbent methods you are used to.
In emergent coding, your reputation is built upon the performance of your Agent.
If your Agent produces substandard features, you are simply creating an opportunity for a competitor to increase their market share at your expense.
Here are some points worth noting regarding bad actor Agents:
  1. An Agent is a specialist and in emergent coding is unaware of the project they are contributing to. If you are a bad actor, do you compromise every contract you receive? Some? None?
  2. Your client is relying on the quality of your contribution to maintain their own reputation. Long before any client will trust your contributions, they will have tested you to ensure the quality is at their required level. You have to be at the top of your game in your classification to even win business. This isn't some shmuck pulling your routine from a library.
  3. Each contract to your agent is provisioned. Ie you advertise in advance what collaborations you require to complete your design. There is no opportunity for a "sign a Bitcoin transaction" Agent to be requesting "send an HTTP request" collaborations.
  4. Your Agent never gets to modify code, it makes a design contribution rather than a code contribution. There is no opportunity to inject anything as the mechanism that causes the code to emerge is a higher order complexity of all Agent involvement.
  5. There is near perfect accountability in emergent coding. You are being contracted and paid to do the design. Every project you compromise has an arrow pointed straight at you should it be detected even years later.
Security is a whole other ball game in emergent coding and current rules do not necessarily apply.
13. Every time someone rebuilds their application, do they have to pay over again for all "design contributions"? (Or is the ability to license components at fixed single price for at least a limited period or even perpetually, supported by the construction (agent) process?)
You are paying for the design. Every time you build (or rebuild) an application, you pay the developers involved. They do not know they are "rebuilding". This sounds dire but its costs far less than you think and there are many advantages. Automation is very high with emergent coding so software design is completed for a fraction of the cost of incumbent design methods. You could perhaps rebuild many time before matching incumbent methods. Adding features is hard with incumbent methods "..very few late-stage additions are required before the code base transforms from the familiar to a veritable monster of missed schedules, blown budgets and flawed products" (Brooks Jr 1987) whereas with emergent coding adding a late stage feature requires a rebuild and hence seamless integration. With Emergent Coding, you can add an unlimited number of features without risking the codebase as there isn't one.
The second part of your question incorrectly assumes software is created from licensed components rather than created by paying Agents to design features into your project without any licenses involved.
14. In this construction process, is the vendor of a particular "design contribution" able to charge differential rates per their own choosing? e.g. if I wanted to charge a super-low rate to someone from a 3rd world country versus charging slightly more when someone a global multinational corporation wants to license my feature?
Yes. Developers set the price and policy of their Agent's service. The Valley (where your Agent is presently advertised) presently only supports a simple price policy. The second part of your question incorrectly assumes features are encumbered with licenses. A developer can provide their feature without revealing their intellectual property. A client has the right to reuse a developer's feature in another project but will find it uneconomical to do so.
15. Is "entirely free" a supported option during the contract negotiation for a feature?
Yes. You set the price of your Agent.
16. "There is no single point of failure." Right now, it seems one needs to register, license the construction tech etc. Is that going to change to a model where your company is not necessarily in that loop? If not, don't you think that's a single point of failure?
It is a decentralized development system. Once you have registered you become part of a peer-to-peer system. Code Valley has thought long and hard about its role and has chosen the reddit model. It will set some rules for your participation and will detect or remove bad actors. If, in your view, Code Valley becomes a bad actor, you have control over your Agent, private keys and IP, you can leave the system at any time.
17. What if I can't obtain a license because of some or other jurisdictional problem? Are you allowed to license the technology to anywhere in the world or just where your government allows it?
We are planning to operate in all 150 countries. As ec is peer-to-peer, Code Valley does not need to register as a digital currency exchange or the like. Only those countries banning BCH will miss out (until such times as BCH becomes the first global electronic cash system).
18.
For example the Cashbar combines just 16 high level Point-of-Sale features but ultimately results in more than 10,000 contracts in toto.
It seems already a reasonably complex application, so well done in having that as a demo.
Thank you.
19. I asked someone else a question about how it would be possible to verify whether an application (let's say one received a binary executable) has been built with your system of emergent consensus. Is this possible?
Yes of course. If you used ec to build an application, you can sign it and claim anything you like. Your client knows it came from you because of your signature. The design contributions making up the application are not signed but surprisingly there is still perfect accountability (see below).
20. I know it is possible to identify for example all source files and other metadata (like build environment) that went into constructing a binary, by storing this data inside an executable.
All metadata emergent coding is now stored offline. When your Agent completes a job, you have a log of the design agreements you made with your peers etc., as part of the log. If you are challenged at a later date for breaching a design contract, you can pull your logs to see what decisions you made, what sub-contracts were let etc. As every Agent has their own logs, the community as a whole has a completely trustless log of each project undertaken.
21. Is this being done with EC build products and would it allow the recipient to validate that what they've been provided has been built only using "design contributions" cryptographically signed by their providers and nothing else (i.e. no code that somehow crept in that isn't covered by the contracting process)?
The emergent coding trust model is very effective and has been proven in other industries. Remember, your Agent creates a feature in my project by actually combining smaller features contracted from other Agents, thus your reputation is linked to that of your suppliers. If Bosch makes a faulty relay in my Ford, I blame Ford for a faulty car not Bosch when my headlights don't work. Similarly, you must choose and vet your sub-contractors to the level of quality that you yourself want to project. Once these relationships are set up, it becomes virtually impossible for a bad actor to participate in the system for long or even from the get go.
22. A look at code generated and a surprising answer to why is every intermediate variable spilled?
Thanks to u/R_Sholes, this snippet from the actual code for: number = number * 10 + digitgenerated as a part of: sub read/integeboolean($, 0, 100) -> guess
; copy global to local temp variable 0x004032f2 movabs r15, global.current_digit 0x004032fc mov r15, qword [r15] 0x004032ff mov rax, qword [r15] 0x00403302 movabs rdi, local.digit 0x0040330c mov qword [rdi], rax ; copy global to local temp variable 0x0040330f movabs r15, global.guess 0x00403319 mov r15, qword [r15] 0x0040331c mov rax, qword [r15] 0x0040331f movabs rdi, local.num 0x00403329 mov qword [rdi], rax ; multiply local variable by constant, uses new temp variable for output 0x0040332c movabs r15, local.num 0x00403336 mov rax, qword [r15] 0x00403339 movabs rbx, 10 0x00403343 mul rbx 0x00403346 movabs rdi, local.num_times_10 0x00403350 mov qword [rdi], rax ; add local variables, uses yet another new temp variable for output 0x00403353 movabs r15, local.num_times_10 0x0040335d mov rax, qword [r15] 0x00403360 movabs r15, local.digit 0x0040336a mov rbx, qword [r15] 0x0040336d add rax, rbx 0x00403370 movabs rdi, local.num_times_10_plus_digit 0x0040337a mov qword [rdi], rax ; copy local temp variable back to global 0x0040337d movabs r15, local.num_times_10_plus_digit 0x00403387 mov rax, qword [r15] 0x0040338a movabs r15, global.guess 0x00403394 mov rdi, qword [r15] 0x00403397 mov qword [rdi], rax For comparison, an equivalent snippet in C compiled by clang without optimizations gives this output: imul rax, qword ptr [guess], 10 add rax, qword ptr [digit] mov qword ptr [guess], rax 
Collaborations at the byte layer of Agents result in designs that spill every intermediate variable.
Firstly, why this is so?
Agents from this early version only support one catch-all variable design when collaborating. Similar to a compiler when all registers contain variables, the compiler must make a decision to spill a register temporarily to main memory. The compiler would still work if it spilled every variable to main memory but would produce code that would be, as above, hopelessly inefficient.
However, by only supporting the catch-all portion of the protocol, the code valley designers were able to design, build and deploy these agents faster because an Agent needs fewer predicates in order to participate in these simpler collaborations.
The protocol involved however, can have many "Policies" besides the catch-all default policy (Agents can collaborate over variables designed to be on the stack, or, as is common for intermediate variables, designed to use a CPU register, and so forth).
This example highlights one of the very exciting aspects of emergent coding. If we now add a handful of additional predicates to a handful of these byte layer agents, henceforth ALL project binaries will be 10x smaller and 10x faster.
Finally, there can be many Agents competing for market share at each of classification. If these "gumby" agents do not improve, you can create a "smarter" competitor (ie with more predicates) and win business away from them. Candy from a baby. Competition means the smartest agents bubble to the top of every classification and puts the entire emergent coding platform on a fast path for improvement. Contrast this with incumbent libraries which does not have a financial incentive to improve. Just wait until you get to see our production system.
23. How hard can an ADD Agent be?
Typically an Agent's feature is created by combining smaller features from other Agents. The smallest features are so devoid of context and complexity they can be rendered by designing a handful of bytes in the project binary. Below is a description of one of these "byte" layer Agents to give you an idea how they work.
An "Addition" Agent creates the feature of "adding two numbers" in your project (This is an actual Agent). That is, it contributes to the project design a feature such that when the project binary is delivered, there will be an addition instruction somewhere in it that was designed by the contract that was let to this Agent.
If you were this Agent, for each contract you received, you would need to collaborate with peers in the project to resolve vital requirements before you can proceed to design your binary "instruction".
Each paid contract your Agent receives will need to participate in at least 4 collaborations within the design project. These are:
  1. Input A collaboration
  2. Input B collaboration
  3. Result collaboration
  4. Construction site collaboration
You can see from the collaborations involved how your Agent can determine the precise details needed to design its instruction. As part of the contract, the Addition Agent will be provisioned with contact details so it can join these collaborations. Your Agent must collaborate with other stakeholders in each collaboration to resolve that requirement. In this case, how a variable will be treated. The stakeholders use a protocol to arrive at an Agreement and share the terms of the agreement. For example, the stakeholders of collaboration “Input A” may agree to treat the variable as an signed 64bit integer, resolve to locate it at location 0x4fff2, or alternatively agree that the RBX register should be used, or agree to use one of the many other ways a variable can be represented. Once each collaboration has reached an agreement and the terms of that agreement distributed, your Agent can begin to design the binary instruction. The construction site collaboration is where you will exactly place your binary bytes.
The construction site protocol is detailed in the whitepaper and is some of the magic that allows the decentralized development system to deliver the project binary. The protocol consists of 3 steps,
  1. You request space in the project binary be reserved.
  2. You are notified of the physical address of your requested space.
  3. You delver the the binary bytes you designed to fill the reserved space.
Once the bytes are returned your Agent can remove the job from its work schedule. Job done, payment received, another happy customer with a shiny ADD instruction designed into their project binary.
Note:
  1. Observe how it is impossible for this ADD Agent to install a backdoor undetected by the client.
  2. Observe how the Agent isn’t linking a module, or using a HLL to express the binary instruction.
  3. Observe how with just a handful of predicates you have a working "Addition" Agent capable of designing the Addition Feature into a project with a wide range of collaboration agreements.
  4. Observe how this Agent could conceivably not even design-in an ADD instruction if one of the design time collaboration agreements was a literal "1" (It would design in an increment instruction). There is even a case where this Agent may not deliver any binary to build its feature into your project!
24. How does EC arrive at a project binary without writing source code?
Devs using EC combine features to create solutions. They don't write code. EC devs contract Agents which design the desired features into their project for a fee. Emergent coding uses a domain specific contracting language (called pilot) to describe the necessary contracts. Pilot is not a general purpose language. As agents create their features by similarly combining smaller features contracted from peer, your desired features may inadvertently result in thousands of contracts. As it is agents all the way down, there is no source code to create the project binary.
Traditional: Software requirements -> write code -> compile -> project binary (ELF).
Emergent coding: Select desired features -> contract agents -> project binary (ELF).
Agents themselves are created the same way - specify the features you want your agent to have, contract the necessary agents for those features and viola - agent project binary (ELF).
25. How does the actual binary code that agents deliver to each other is written?
An agent never touches code. With emergent coding, agents contribute features to a project, and leave the project binary to emerge as the higher-order complexity of their collective effort. Typically, agents “contribute” their feature by causing smaller features to be contributed by peers, who in turn, do likewise. By mapping features to smaller features delivered by these peers, agents ensure their feature is delivered to the project without themselves making a direct code contribution.
Peer connections established by these mappings serve to both incrementally extend a temporary project “scaffold” and defer the need to render a feature as a code contribution. At the periphery of the scaffold, features are so simple they can be rendered as a binary fragment with these binary fragments using the information embodied by the scaffold to guide the concatenation back along the scaffold to emerge as the project binary - hence the term Emergent Coding.
Note the scaffold forms a temporary tree-like structure which allows virtually all the project design contracts to be completed in parallel. The scaffold also automatically limits an agent's scope to precisely the resources and site for their feature. It is why it is virtually impossible for an agent to install a "back door" or other malicious code into the project binary.
submitted by nlovisa to EmergentCoding [link] [comments]

JPM - Early Look at the Market – Thurs 9.28.17- **PLEASE DO NOT FORWARD THIS DOCUMENT**

PAY F FOR RESPECT FOR HUGH HEFNER

J.P. Morgan Early Look at the Market – Thurs 9.28.17 Trading Desk Commentary; For Institutional Investors Only

PLEASE DO NOT FORWARD THIS DOCUMENT

Morning Levels

Trading Update

Top Headlines for Thursday

Calendar of events to watch for Mon Oct 2

Opinion/Interesting-but-not-immediately-impactful/intra-day boredom reading

Full catalyst list

  • Fri Sept 29 – China Caixin manufacturing PMI for Sept (Thurs night/Fri morning)
  • Fri Sept 29 – German jobs numbers for Sept. 3:55amET.
  • Fri Sept 29 – Eurozone CPI for Sept. 5amET.
  • Fri Sept 29 – US personal income/spending for Aug. 8:30amET.
  • Fri Sept 29 – US PCE for Aug. 8:30amET.
  • Fri Sept 29 – Chicago PMI for Sept. 9:45amET.
  • Fri Sept 29 – Michigan Confidence for Sept. 10amET.
  • Fri Sept 29 – Fed speakers: Harker
  • Fri Sept 29 – analyst meetings: CMP
  • Sat Sept 30 – China NBS manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI for Sept (Fri night/Sat morning)
  • Mon Oct 2 – China mainland markets closed Mon 10/2-Fri 10/6 for the National Day holiday.
  • Mon Oct 2 – Eurozone manufacturing PMI for Sept. 4amET.
  • Mon Oct 2 – Eurozone unemployment rate for Aug. 5amET.
  • Mon Oct 2 – US manufacturing PMI for Sept. 9:45amET.
  • Mon Oct 2 – US manufacturing ISM for Sept. 10amET.
  • Mon Oct 2 – US construction spending for Aug. 10amET.
  • Mon Oct 2 – Fed speakers: Kaplan
  • Tues Oct 3 – Eurozone PPI for Aug. 5amET.
  • Tues Oct 3 – US auto sales for Sept.
  • Tues Oct 3 – analyst meetings: F/Ford (Ford CEO to host strategic update), INTU, NTAP, SHW
  • Tues Oct 3 – earnings before the open: PAYX, LEN
  • Tues Oct 3 – earnings after the close: IDT
  • Wed Oct 4 – Eurozone services PMI for Sept. 4amET.
  • Wed Oct 4 – Eurozone retail sales for Aug. 5amET.
  • Wed Oct 4 – RBI rate decision. 5amET.
  • Wed Oct 4 – US ADP jobs report for Sept. 8:15amET.
  • Wed Oct 4 – US services PMI for Sept. 9:45amET.
  • Wed Oct 4 – US non-manufacturing ISM for Sept. 10amET.
  • Wed Oct 4 – Yellen delivers opening remarks at Community Banking conf. 3:15pmET.
  • Wed Oct 4 – analyst meetings: BWXT, BXP, MNK, TTD
  • Wed Oct 4 – earnings before the open: AYI, MON, PEP, RPM, Tesco PLC
  • Wed Oct 4 – earnings after the close: CAFD, RECN
  • Thurs Oct 5 – ECB meeting minutes. 7:30amET.
  • Thurs Oct 5 – US factory orders and durable goods for Aug. 10amET.
  • Thurs Oct 5 – Fed speakers: Williams, Harker, George.
  • Thurs Oct 5 – analyst meetings: BKH, CLX, LUK, TWOU
  • Thurs Oct 5 – earnings before the open: ISCA, STZ=
  • Thurs Oct 5 – earnings after the close: COST, HELE, YUMC
  • Fri Oct 6 – German factory orders for Aug. 2amET.
  • Fri Oct 6 – US jobs report for Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Fri Oct 6 – US wholesale inventories/trade sales for Aug. 10amET.
  • Fri Oct 6 – US consumer credit for Aug. 3pmET.
  • Fri Oct 6 – Fed speakers: Bostic, Kaplan, Bullard
  • Sat Oct 7 – China FX reserves for Sept (Fri night/Sat morning)
  • Mon Oct 9 – China Caixin services PMI for Sept (Sun night/Mon morning)
  • Mon Oct 9 – German industrial production for Aug. 2amET.
  • Mon Oct 9 – Columbus Day holiday in the US (equities will be open while fixed income is closed).
  • Tues Oct 10 – German trade balance for Aug. 2amET.
  • Tues Oct 10 – analyst meetings: TECD, Santander, WDAY, WMT
  • Tues Oct 10 – PG shareholder meeting
  • Tues Oct 10 – earnings after the close: CUDA
  • Wed Oct 11 – US JOLTs report for Aug. 10amET.
  • Wed Oct 11 – Fed minutes from the Sept 20 meeting (2pmET).
  • Wed Oct 11 – analyst meetings: KR
  • Wed Oct 11 – earnings before the open: FAST
  • Thurs Oct 12 – Eurozone industrial production for Aug. 5amET.
  • Thurs Oct 12 – US PPI for Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Thurs Oct 12 – analyst meetings: BOX, HPQ
  • Thurs Oct 12 – earnings before the open: C, JPM, Tata Consultancy.
  • Thurs Oct 12 – earnings after the close: EXFO
  • Fri Oct 13 – China imports/exports for Sept (Thurs night/Fri morning)
  • Fri Oct 13 – US CPI for Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Fri Oct 13 – US retail sales for Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Fri Oct 13 – US Michigan Sentiment for Oct. 10amET.
  • Fri Oct 13 – US business inventories for Aug. 10amET.
  • Fri Oct 13 – analyst meetings: SAFM
  • Fri Oct 13 – European trading updates: Man Group
  • Fri Oct 13 – earnings before the open: BAC, PNC, WFC
  • Mon Oct 16 – China CPI/PPI for Sept (Sun night/Mon morning)
  • Mon Oct 16 – Eurozone trade balance for Aug. 5amET.
  • Mon Oct 16 – earnings before the open: SCHW
  • Mon Oct 16 – earnings after the close: NFLX, Rio Tinto
  • Tues Oct 17 – Eurozone Sept auto registrations. 2amET.
  • Tues Oct 17 – German ZEW survey results for Oct. 5amET.
  • Tues Oct 17 – US import prices for Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Tues Oct 17 – US industrial production for Sept. 9:15amET.
  • Tues Oct 17 – US NAHB housing index for Oct. 10amET.
  • Tues Oct 17 – earnings before the open: CMA, CSX, GS, GWW, HOG, JNJ, UNH
  • Tues Oct 17 – earnings after the close: BHP, CP, CREE, IBM
  • Wed Oct 18 – US housing starts for Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Wed Oct 18 – US building permits fro Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Wed Oct 18 – US Beige Book. 2pmET.
  • Wed Oct 18 – earnings before the open: ABT, MTB, USB
  • Wed Oct 18 – earnings after the close: AXP, SLG
  • Thurs Oct 19 – China Q3 GDP and Sept retail sales, IP, and FAI (Wed night/Thurs morning)
  • Thurs Oct 19 – US Leading Index for Sept. 10amET.
  • Thurs Oct 19 – earnings before the open: ADS, BBT, DHR, GPC, KEY, PM, PPG, TRV, TXT, VZ
  • Fri Oct 20 – US existing home sales for Sept. 10amET.
  • Fri Oct 20 – earnings before the open: BHGE, CFG, GE, SLB, STI, SYF.
  • Mon Oct 23 – China Sept property prices (Sun night/Mon morning).
  • Mon Oct 23 – US Chicago Fed Activity Index for Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Tues Oct 24 – Eurozone flash PMIs for Oct. 4amET.
  • Tues Oct 24 – US flash PMIs for Oct. 9:45amET.
  • Wed Oct 25 – US durable goods for Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Wed Oct 25 – US FHFA home price index for Aug. 9amET.
  • Wed Oct 25 – US new home sales for Sept. 10amET.
  • Thurs Oct 26 – US wholesale inventories for Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Thurs Oct 26 – US advance goods trade balance for Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Thurs Oct 26 – US pending home sales for Sept. 10amET.
  • Fri Oct 27 – China Sept industrial profits (Thurs night/Fri morning).
  • Fri Oct 27 – US Q3 GDP, personal consumption, and core PCE for Q3. 8:30amET.
  • Fri Oct 27 – US Michigan Confidence numbers for Oct. 10amET.
**J.P. Morgan Market Intelligence is a product of the Institutional Equities Sales and Trading desk of J.P. Morgan Securities LLC and the intellectual property thereof. It is not a product of the Research Department and is intended for distribution to institutional and professional customers only and is not intended for retail customer use. It may not be reproduced, redistributed or transmitted, in whole or in part, without J.P. Morgan’s consent. Any unauthorized use is strictly prohibited.**
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J.P. Morgan Early Look at the Market – Mon 10.16.17 - **PLEASE DO NOT FORWARD THIS DOCUMENT**

J.P. Morgan Early Look at the Market – Mon 10.16.17

SEC DISCLAMIER: PLEASE DO NOT FORWARD THIS DOCUMENT

Morning Levels

Trading Update

Top Headlines for Monday

Catalysts – big events to watch over the coming months

Full catalyst list

  • Wed Oct 18 – Fed speakers: Dudley, Kaplan.
  • Wed Oct 18 – US housing starts for Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Wed Oct 18 – US building permits for Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Wed Oct 18 – US Beige Book. 2pmET.
  • Wed Oct 18 – earnings before the open: ABT, Akzo Nobel, ASML, MTB, MTG, NTRS, Reckitt Benckiser, SVU, USB
  • Wed Oct 18 – earnings after the close: AA, AXP, BDN, BHE, BXS, CCI, CCK, EBAY, GHL, HXL, KALU, LLNW, SLG, SLM, STLD, TCBI, URI.
  • Thurs Oct 19 – China Q3 GDP and Sept retail sales, IP, and FAI (Wed night/Thurs morning)
  • Thurs Oct 19 – US Leading Index for Sept. 10amET.
  • Thurs Oct 19 – earnings before the open: ADS, BBT, BK, BX, DGX, DHR, DOV, GPC, KEY, Nestle, NUE, Pernod Ricard, Philips Lighting, PM, PPG, Publicis, RCI, Roche, SAP, SNA, SON, Thales, TRV, TSMC, TXT, Unilever, VZ, WBC, WGO.
  • Thurs Oct 19 – earnings after the close: ASB, ATHN, ETFC, ISRG, LHO, MXIM, NCR, PBCT, PFPT, PYPL, WDFC, WERN.
  • Fri Oct 20 – BOJ’s Kuroda speaks. 2:30amET.
  • Fri Oct 20 – US existing home sales for Sept. 10amET.
  • Fri Oct 20 – Yellen speaks to National Economists Club in Washington. 7:15pmET.
  • Fri Oct 20 – earnings before the open: Assa Abloy, BHGE, CFG, CLF, Daimler, DST, GE, GNTX, HON, InterContinental Hotels, KSU, MAN, PG, SLB, STI, SYF, TomTom, Volvo.
  • Mon Oct 23 – China Sept property prices (Sun night/Mon morning).
  • Mon Oct 23 – US Chicago Fed Activity Index for Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Mon Oct 23 – earnings before the open: HAL, HAS, ITW, KMB, LII, Philips, STT, STX, VFC
  • Mon Oct 23 – earnings after the close: ARNC, CR, JBT, OI, ZION.
  • Tues Oct 24 – Eurozone flash PMIs for Oct. 4amET.
  • Tues Oct 24 – ECB bank lending survey. 4amET.
  • Tues Oct 24 – US flash PMIs for Oct. 9:45amET.
  • Tues Oct 24 – earnings before the open: AMTD, Anglo American, BASF, BIIB, CAT, CLB, CNC, CVLT, ETR, Fiat Chrysler, FITB, GLW, GM, INFY, IPG, LLY, LMT, MAS, MCD, MMM, Novartis, PCAR, PHM, PNR, R, RF, SAH, SHW, SWK, UTX, WAT, WDR.
  • Tues Oct 24 – earnings after the close: AKAM, AMP, AXS, Canadian National Railway, CMG, COF, CYBE, DFS, ESRX, HLI, IRBT, IRM, MANH, NUVA, RGC, T, TSS, TXN.
  • Wed Oct 25 – US durable goods for Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Wed Oct 25 – US FHFA home price index for Aug. 9amET.
  • Wed Oct 25 – US new home sales for Sept. 10amET.
  • Wed Oct 25 – Bank of Canada rate decision. 10amET.
  • Wed Oct 25 – Brazilian rate decision (after the close).
  • Wed Oct 25 – earnings before the open: ALK, ALLY, ANTM, Antofagasta, AOS, APH, BA, BAX, BTU, Capgemini, Dassault Systemes, DPS, FCX, FLIR, Fresnillo, HBAN, Heineken, IP, IR, KO, LEA, LH, Lloyds Banking Group, NDAQ, NSC, NYCB, OC, Peugeot, SIRI, SLAB, TMO, TUP, V, WBA, WEC, WYN.
  • Wed Oct 25 – earnings after the close: ABX, ACGL, AFL, AMGN, CA, CLGX, DLR, FFIV, FNF, FTI, KIM, LSTR, MC, MLNX, NOW, NXPI, ORLY, PKG, PLXS, RJF, SSNC, TSCO, TYL, UNM, VAR, WCN, XLNX.
  • Thurs Oct 26 – Riksbank decision. 3:30amET.
  • Thurs Oct 26 – ECB rate decision. 7:45amET press release, 8:30amET press conf.
  • Thurs Oct 26 – US wholesale inventories for Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Thurs Oct 26 – US advance goods trade balance for Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Thurs Oct 26 – US pending home sales for Sept. 10amET.
  • Thurs Oct 26 – earnings before the open: ABB, ABX, Aixtron, ALLE, ALV, Anheuser Busch, APD, Bayer, BEN, BMS, BMY, BSX, BWA, CCMP, CELG, CHTR, CMCSA, CME, COP, Deutsche Bank, ENTG, EQT, EXLS, F, GNC, HLT, HSY, LUV, MMC, MKC, NEM, Nokia, OAK, ODFL, PX, Santander, Schneider Electric, SPGI, STM, TWTR, UNP, UPS, VC, VNTV, WM, XEL, XRX.
  • Thurs Oct 26 – earnings after the close: AIV, ATEN, CB, CDNS, CENX, CLS, EXPE, FLEX, FTNT, FTV, GILD, GOOG, HIG, INTC, LPLA, MAT, MSFT, NATI, PFG, PRO, SGEN, SIVB, SYK, VDSI, VRSN.
  • Fri Oct 27 – China Sept industrial profits (Thurs night/Fri morning).
  • Fri Oct 27 – US Q3 GDP, personal consumption, and core PCE for Q3. 8:30amET.
  • Fri Oct 27 – US Michigan Confidence numbers for Oct. 10amET.
  • Fri Oct 27 – earnings before the open: B, MRK, PSX, SC, TRU, Volkswagen, WY, XOM.
  • Mon Oct 30 – US personal income/spending and PCE for Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Mon Oct 30 – US Dallas Fed index for Oct. 10:30amET.
  • Mon Oct 30 – analyst meetings: CSX
  • Mon Oct 30 – earnings before the open: HSBC
  • Mon Oct 30 – earnings after the close: AVB, CGNX, RE, RTEC, VNO
  • Tues Oct 31 – BOJ rate decision (Mon night/Tues morning).
  • Tues Oct 31 – US Employment Cost Index for Q3. 8:30amET.
  • Tues Oct 31 – US Case-Shiller home price index for Aug. 9amET.
  • Tues Oct 31 – US Chicago PMI for Oct. 9:45amET.
  • Tues Oct 31 – US Conference Board Sentiment readings for Oct. 10amET.
  • Tues Oct 31 – earnings before the open: ADM, AET, Airbus, AMT, Barclays, BNP, CMI, ECL, FIS, GGP, K, MA, OSK, PFE, XYL.
  • Tues Oct 31 – earnings after the close: APC, CHRW, CXO, PLT, WFT, X
  • Wed Nov 1 – US ADP jobs report for Oct. 8:15amET.
  • Wed Nov 1 – US Markit Manufacturing PMI for Oct. 9:45amET.
  • Wed Nov 1 – US Manufacturing ISM for Oct. 10amET.
  • Wed Nov 1 – US construction spending report for Sept. 10amET.
  • Wed Nov 1 – US auto sales for Oct.
  • Wed Nov 1 – FOMC meeting decision. 2pmET.
  • Wed Nov 1 – earnings before the open: AGN, APO, CEVA, CLX, EL, GRMN, HFC, LFUS, Novo Nordisk, ORBK, Standard Chartered, TAP, TRI.
  • Wed Nov 1 – earnings after the close: ALL, BHF, BXP, CACI, CAVM, CSGS, EGOV, FB, LNC, MANT, MET, MUSA, OXY, PRU, QCOM, ULTI, XPO.
  • Thurs Nov 2 – BOE rate decision. 8amET.
  • Thurs Nov 2 – US nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs for Q3. 8:30amET.
  • Thurs Nov 2 – earnings before the open: ADP, AN, BCE, CI, Credit Suisse, DISCA, H, ICE, LDOS, Royal Dutch Shell, Sanofi, Swiss Re, WRK.
  • Thurs Nov 2 – earnings after the close: AAPL, AIG, ATVI, CBS, CRUS, FLR, HLF, JCOM, RMAX, SBUX, UNIT.
  • Fri Nov 3 – US jobs report for Oct. 8:30amET.
  • Fri Nov 3 – US trade balance for Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Fri Nov 3 – US factory orders and durable goods orders for Sept. 10amET.
  • Fri Nov 3 – US non-manufacturing ISM for Oct. 10amET.
  • Mon Nov 6 – Fed’s Dudley speaks at The Economist Club of New York.
  • Tues Nov 7 – RBA rate decision. Mon night/Tues morning.
  • Tues Nov 7 – US JOLTs jobs report for Sept. 10amET.
  • Tues Nov 7 – US consumer credit for Sept. 3pmET.
  • Thurs Nov 9 – US wholesale trade sales/inventories for Sept. 10amET.
  • Fri Nov 10 – US Michigan Confidence preliminary numbers for Nov. 10amET.
  • Tues Nov 14 – US PPI for Oct. 8:30amET.
  • Wed Nov 15 – US CPI for Oct. 8:30amET.
  • Wed Nov 15 – US Empire Manufacturing for Nov. 8:30amET.
  • Wed Nov 15 – US retail sales for Oct. 8:30amET.
  • Wed Nov 15 – US business inventories for Sept. 10amET.
  • Thurs Nov 16 – US import prices for Oct. 8:30amET.
  • Thurs Nov 16 – US industrial production for Oct. 9:15amET.
  • Thurs Nov 16 – US NAHB housing index for Nov. 10amET.
  • Fri Nov 17 – US housing starts and building permits for Oct. 8:30amET.
  • Mon Nov 20 – US Leading Index for Oct. 10amET.
  • Tues Nov 21 – US existing home sales for Oct. 10amET.
  • Wed Nov 22 – US durable goods for Oct. 8:30amET.
  • Wed Nov 22 – US final Michigan Confidence numbers for Nov. 10amET.
  • Wed Nov 22 – FOMC 11/1 meeting minutes. 2pmET.
  • Fri Nov 24 – US flash PMIs for Nov. 9:45amET.
J.P. Morgan Market Intelligence is a product of the Institutional Equities Sales and Trading desk of J.P. Morgan Securities LLC and the intellectual property thereof. It is not a product of the Research Department and is intended for distribution to institutional and professional customers only and is not intended for retail customer use. It may not be reproduced, redistributed or transmitted, in whole or in part, without J.P. Morgan’s consent. Any unauthorized use is strictly prohibited.
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