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Others wish to purchase Bitcoin with debit card. Coinbase likewise offers this service and has clear action by action directions on how to continue with either your debit or charge card. There are those who wish to purchase Bitcoin immediately. This can be done at Paxful, and can be done through W. Union or any credit/debit card. Other typical concerns that show up are what is the very best method to purchase Bitcoins, the very best method to get bitcoins or where to purchase bitcoins online. The most convenient method is most likely to buy it through a digital possession exchange like the formerly pointed out Coinbase. Opening an account with them is pain-free and as soon as you connect your checking account with them you can purchase and offer Bitcoin rather quickly. This is rather most likely likewise the very best location to purchase Bitcoins. One need to understand what a Bitcoin wallet is and how to utilize it. You need to be aware of how to tumble bitcoin if you care about your privacy. It is just the Bitcoin equivalent of a checking account. It permits you to get Bitcoins, save them and send them to others. What it does is shop a collection of Bitcoin personal privacy secrets. Generally it is secured with a password or otherwise secured from unapproved gain access to. There are a number of kinds of digital wallets to pick from. A web wallet permits you to send out, get and keep Bitcoin though your web internet browser. Another type is a desktop wallet and here the wallet software application is saved straight on your computer system. There are likewise mobile wallets which are created for usage by a mobile phone. A concern that periodically turns up is that of Bitcoin stock or how to purchase Bitcoin stock. Without a doubt the most typical method to continue in this location is to purchase Bitcoin straight and not its stock. There is one entity called Bitcoin Financial investment trust which is a mutual fund that is created to track the marketplace circulation of Bitcoin. Some experts nevertheless are calling this a dangerous method to end up being associated with this market. The Bitcoin currency exchange rate USD is a carefully enjoyed criteria both every day and long term over the last 8 years because its intro to the world's monetary market. A popular business to get the most present rate in Bitcoin assessment is XE. They reveal Bitcoin to USD assessment and likewise the total Bitcoin cost chart, the Bitcoin worth chart and the Bitcoin to USD chart. If you ask, "Just how much is one Bitcoin?" you will constantly understand from their constantly upgraded charts. Comparable concerns that show up in this location connect to the bitcoin rate history, the bitcoin rate chart live, the bitcoin to dollar currency exchange rate, the bitcoin dollar chart and the bitcoin 5 year chart. The formerly discussed site, xe, is likewise a great source for responses to these concerns. Bitcoin predicted worth is a subject typically talked about. In January of 2015 the rate of one bitcoin was $215. Presently it is around $5000. This is an extraordinary boost and one far beyond what many specialists would have forecasted at that time. Presently in evaluating projections from professionals all over the world a typical response appears to be that the leading worth will settle in at around $10,000 and one specialist even predicted a worth reaching $100,000.
Bitcoin is still in the green zone. Is it calm before the storm or the course for stabilization?
From the beginning of this year, the main crypto coin has made over 170 percent. Although some participants of the market think that these results cannot be compared with its previous peaks. It was in the final 3 months of 2017 that BTC price growth reached 400%, and the coin itself soared to record levels. 2018 was a challenge for all players and those involved in the digital asset industry. It seems that 2019 will become a patience test, because BTC moves up very slowly, especially taking into account 2 and a half months of lateral movement. Market cycles from peak values to drops seem to become longer. It takes more and more time for each correction. But there are those who are confident that bitcoin dominance is steadily moving to 90 percent value. This is the opinion of Blockstream CEO Adam black, who recently wrote that the dominance index of BTC first fell below 95 percent in February 2017. After this, a gradual strengthening of the position of altcoins took place, which provoked a significant decrease in the share of bitcoin transactions. In 2018, the dominance index of the main crypto coin was dropping to below 40 percent, but afterwards it began to grow. According to Coinmarketcap, on September, 12 bitcoin dominance index amounted to 70,2 percent. This makes Black’s hopes not without ground. Lately bitcoin has not been subject to “storms” as previously. Blockforce Capital experts determined that bitcoin's 30-day volatility stands at 53 percent. According to Coinmarket, between August, 12 and September,12 bitcoin’s rate was always between the range of $10000-11000. Blockforce experts believe that in this month BTC will complete consolidation. When this stage is completed, the first crypto coin will return to soaring, analytics reassure. Famous trader Josh Rages said on September, 10 that within next days bitcoin can drop in price down to $9000 or even $8000. And although his scenario hasn’t come true yet, this outcome cannot be dismissed in the absence of support from investors. Currently Twitter users are seriously discussing the so-called descending triangle on the bitcoin rate chart. It is very similar to the figure which formed on the main crypto coin’s chart in 2018 and marked the fall of the value of the coin below $ 6,000. This is not an arbitrary symbol, this is one of the “bearish” patterns in technical analysis. However, Thomas Bulkowski, expert in the field, reassures that descending triangles turn out to be true only in 53 percent of cases. Similary, in ascending trend this figure doesn’t work in 63 percent of cases. Crypto trader Scott Melker is even confident that there is no triangle on bitcoin’s chart at all and that’s why there is no reason to panic. https://preview.redd.it/4mrxuwc9bcm31.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c33c1439b15d058d35341c99231d89c3daf264fe
Why I'm not worried about a resurgence of inflation
TL/DR: Despite massive fiscal stimulus packages and seemingly never-ending quantitative easing programs, I don't believe we're headed towards a world of out-of-control inflation. Why? The prospect of permanent economic scarring in certain sectors due to extended lockdowns coupled with rapid technological adoption are two factors that are likely to keep price pressures low. Investors seem quite concerned about rising inflation risk, which is likely supporting the strong bid for inflation-hedging assets like gold and bitcoin year to date. Adding fuel to the fire, top money managers, like Bridgewater and BlackRock, have been vocal in financial media lately about the risk of a high-inflation regime down the road. A high-inflation regime would be a remarkable departure from the past decade, where inflation was relatively tame even despite ultra-low interest rates and the introduction of unconventional monetary policy tools, like quantitative easing (see chart here: https://ibb.co/Dt8nVFC). Similar to what was observed over the past cycle, I don't see recent policy action leading to sky-high inflation in the future.
First, it's important to note that fiscal and monetary stimulus is aresponseto a weak economic outlook. Direct income assistance (i.e. the CARES Act) is meant to help offset lost wages due to extended lockdowns and business closures. Those who believe inflation is going to materially rise would argue that the government built a "bridge too far" - though so far the pandemic has outlasted the duration of U.S. stimulus measures.
Second, the pandemic has supercharged the digital economy. E-commerce is exploding (see chart here: https://ibb.co/7GQknX6) - a long-term trend that I believe is likely here to stay. It is well studied that e-commerce is a deflationary force (read more here: https://www.nber.org/papers/w24649). The intuition is straightforward - the internet increases price transparency, lowers barriers to entry, fuels competition, and increases aggregate supply. More online shopping is likely to keep goods price inflation in check for now. This goes without mentioning innovations in the services sector, such as telehealth and online education, which could also keep inflation at bay.
Lastly, as a professional investor focused on global macro, predicting where the global economy is headed is hard and an incredibly humbling exercise. I prefer preparing my own portfolio for a range of outcomes - so while I personally hold some gold and bitcoin, I wouldn't bet the farm on a resurgence of inflation in the future.
Putting $400M of Bitcoin on your company balance sheet
Also posted on my blog as usual. Read it there if you can, there are footnotes and inlined plots. A couple of months ago, MicroStrategy (MSTR) had a spare $400M of cash which it decided to shift to Bitcoin (BTC). Today we'll discuss in excrutiating detail why this is not a good idea. When a company has a pile of spare money it doesn't know what to do with, it'll normally do buybacks or start paying dividends. That gives the money back to the shareholders, and from an economic perspective the money can get better invested in other more promising companies. If you have a huge pile of of cash, you probably should be doing other things than leave it in a bank account to gather dust. However, this statement from MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor exists to make it clear he's buying into BTC for all the wrong reasons:
“This is not a speculation, nor is it a hedge. This was a deliberate corporate strategy to adopt a bitcoin standard.”
Let's unpack it and jump into the economics Bitcoin:
Is Bitcoin money?
No. Or rather BTC doesn't act as money and there's no serious future path for BTC to become a form of money. Let's go back to basics. There are 3 main economic problems money solves: 1. Medium of Exchange. Before money we had to barter, which led to the double coincidence of wants problem. When everyone accepts the same money you can buy something from someone even if they don't like the stuff you own. As a medium of exchange, BTC is not good. There are significant transaction fees and transaction waiting times built-in to BTC and these worsen the more popular BTC get. You can test BTC's usefulness as a medium of exchange for yourself right now: try to order a pizza or to buy a random item with BTC. How many additional hurdles do you have to go through? How many fewer options do you have than if you used a regular currency? How much overhead (time, fees) is there? 2. Unit of Account. A unit of account is what you compare the value of objects against. We denominate BTC in terms of how many USD they're worth, so BTC is a unit of account presently. We can say it's because of lack of adoption, but really it's also because the market value of BTC is so volatile. If I buy a $1000 table today or in 2017, it's roughly a $1000 table. We can't say that a 0.4BTC table was a 0.4BTC table in 2017. We'll expand on this in the next point: 3. Store of Value. When you create economic value, you don't want to be forced to use up the value you created right away. For instance, if I fix your washing machine and you pay me in avocados, I'd be annoyed. I'd have to consume my payment before it becomes brown, squishy and disgusting. Avocado fruit is not good money because avocadoes loses value very fast. On the other hand, well-run currencies like the USD, GBP, CAD, EUR, etc. all lose their value at a low and most importantly fairly predictible rate. Let's look at the chart of the USD against BTC While the dollar loses value at a predictible rate, BTC is all over the place, which is bad. One important use money is to write loan contracts. Loans are great. They let people spend now against their future potential earnings, so they can buy houses or start businesses without first saving up for a decade. Loans are good for the economy. If you want to sign something that says "I owe you this much for that much time" then you need to be able to roughly predict the value of the debt in at the point in time where it's due. Otherwise you'll have a hard time pricing the risk of the loan effectively. This means that you need to charge higher interests. The risk of making a loan in BTC needs to be priced into the interest of a BTC-denominated loan, which means much higher interest rates. High interests on loans are bad, because buying houses and starting businesses are good things.
BTC has a fixed supply, so these problems are built in
Some people think that going back to a standard where our money was denominated by a stock of gold (the Gold Standard) would solve economic problems. This is nonsense. Having control over supply of your currency is a good thing, as long as it's well run. See here Remember that what is desirable is low variance in the value, not the value itself. When there are wild fluctuations in value, it's hard for money to do its job well. Since the 1970s, the USD has been a fiat money with no intrinsic value. This means we control the supply of money. Let's look at a classic poorly drawn econ101 graph The market price for USD is where supply meets demand. The problem with a currency based on an item whose supply is fixed is that the price will necessarily fluctuate in response to changes in demand. Imagine, if you will, that a pandemic strikes and that the demand for currency takes a sharp drop. The US imports less, people don't buy anything anymore, etc. If you can't print money, you get deflation, which is worsens everything. On the other hand, if you can make the money printers go brrrr you can stabilize the price Having your currency be based on a fixed supply isn't just bad because in/deflation is hard to control. It's also a national security risk... The story of the guy who crashed gold prices in North Africa In the 1200s, Mansa Munsa, the emperor of the Mali, was rich and a devout Muslim and wanted everyone to know it. So he embarked on a pilgrimage to make it rain all the way to Mecca. He in fact made it rain so hard he increased the overall supply of gold and unintentionally crashed gold prices in Cairo by 20%, wreaking an economic havoc in North Africa that lasted a decade. This story is fun, the larger point that having your inflation be at the mercy of foreign nations is an undesirable attribute in any currency. The US likes to call some countries currency manipulators, but this problem would be serious under a gold standard.
Currencies are based on trust
Since the USD is based on nothing except the US government's word, how can we trust USD not to be mismanaged? The answer is that you can probably trust the fed until political stooges get put in place. Currently, the US's central bank managing the USD, the Federal Reserve (the Fed for friends & family), has administrative authority. The fed can say "no" to dumb requests from the president. People who have no idea what the fed does like to chant "audit the fed", but the fed is already one of the best audited US federal entities. The transcripts of all their meetings are out in the open. As is their balance sheet, what they plan to do and why. If the US should audit anything it's the Department of Defense which operates without any accounting at all. It's easy to see when a central bank will go rogue: it's when political yes-men are elected to the board. For example, before printing themselves into hyperinflation, the Venezuelan president appointed a sociologist who publicly stated “Inflation does not exist in real life” and instead is a made up capitalist lie. Note what happened mere months after his gaining control over the Venezuelan currency This is a key policy. One paper I really like, Sargent (1984) "The end of 4 big inflations" states:
The essential measures that ended hyperinflation in each of Germany,Austria, Hungary, and Poland were, first, the creation of an independentcentral bank that was legally committed to refuse the government'sdemand or additional unsecured credit and, second, a simultaneousalteration in the fiscal policy regime.
In english: *hyperinflation stops when the central bank can say "no" to the government." The US Fed, like other well good central banks, is run by a bunch of nerds. When it prints money, even as aggressively as it has it does so for good reasons. You can see why they started printing on March 15th as the COVID lockdowns started:
The Federal Reserve is prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals.
In english: We're going to keep printing and lowering rates until jobs are back and inflation is under control. If we print until the sun is blotted out, we'll print in the shade.
BTC is not gold
Gold is a good asset for doomsday-preppers. If society crashes, gold will still have value. How do we know that? Gold has held value throughout multiple historic catastrophes over thousands of years. It had value before and after the Bronze Age Collapse, the Fall of the Western Roman Empire and Gengis Khan being Gengis Khan. Even if you erased humanity and started over, the new humans would still find gold to be economically valuable. When Europeans d̶i̶s̶c̶o̶v̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ c̶o̶n̶q̶u̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ g̶e̶n̶o̶c̶i̶d̶e̶d̶ went to America, they found gold to be an important item over there too. This is about equivalent to finding humans on Alpha-Centauri and learning that they think gold is a good store of value as well. Some people are puzzled at this: we don't even use gold for much! But it has great properties: First, gold is hard to fake and impossible to manufacture. This makes it good to ascertain payment. Second, gold doesnt react to oxygen, so it doesn't rust or tarnish. So it keeps value over time unlike most other materials. Last, gold is pretty. This might sound frivolous, and you may not like it, but jewelry has actual value to humans. It's no coincidence if you look at a list of the wealthiest families, a large number of them trade in luxury goods. To paraphrase Veblen humans have a profound desire to signal social status, for the same reason peacocks have unwieldy tails. Gold is a great way to achieve that. On the other hand, BTC lacks all these attributes. Its value is largely based on common perception of value. There are a few fundamental drivers of demand:
Means of Exchange: if people seriously start using BTC to buy pizzas, then this creates a real demand for the currency to accomplish the short-term exchanges. As we saw previously, I'm not personally sold on this one and it's currently a negligible fraction of overall demand.
Criminal uses: Probably the largest inbuilt advantage of BTC is that it's anonymous, and so a great way to launder money. Hacker gangs use BTC to demand ransom on cryptolocker type attacks because it's a shared way for an honest company to pay and for the criminals to receive money without going to jail.
Apart from these, it's hard to argue that BTC will retain value throughout some sort of economic catastrophe.
BTC is really risky
One last statement from Michael Saylor I take offense to is this:
“We feel pretty confident that Bitcoin is less risky than holding cash, less risky than holding gold,” MicroStrategy CEO said in an interview
"BTC is less risky than holding cash or gold long term" is nonsense. We saw before that BTC is more volatile on face value, and that as long as the Fed isn't run by spider monkeys stacked in a trench coat, the inflation is likely to be within reasonable bounds. But on top of this, BTC has Abrupt downside risks that normal currencies don't. Let's imagine a few:
A critical software vulnerability is found in the BTC codebase, leading to a possible exploitation.
Xi Jinping decides he's had enough of rich people in China hiding their assets from him and bans BTC.
Some form of bank run takes hold for whatever reason. Because BTC wallets are uninsured, unlike regular banks, this compounds into a Black Tuesday style crash.
Blockchain solutions are fundamentally inefficient
Blockchain was a genius idea. I still marvel at the initial white paper which is a great mix of economics and computer science. That said, blockchain solutions make large tradeoffs in design because they assume almost no trust between parties. This leads to intentionally wasteful designs on a massive scale. The main problem is that all transactions have to be validated by expensive computational operations and double checked by multiple parties. This means waste:
BTC was estimated to use as much electricity as Belgium in 2019. It's hard to trace where the BTC mining comes from, but we can assume it has a huge carbon footprint.
A single transactions is necessarily expensive. A single transaction takes as much electricity as 800,000 VISA transactions, or watching 50,000 hours of youtube videos.
There is a large necessary tax on the transaction, since those checking the transaction extract a few BTC from it to be incentivized to do the work of checking it.
Many design problems can be mitigated by various improvements over BTC, but it remains that a simple database always works better than a blockchain if you can trust the parties to the transaction.
Charts showing bitcoin price predictions and currency exchange rate predictions (made using artificial intelligence algorithms)
www.btcpredictions.com Hello guys, I run this website and I just made a major update. I was hoping to get some feedback. The site uses artificial intelligence (specifically artificial neural networks) to try to predict future bitcoin prices, as well as currency exchange rates (and soon other commodities as well). The predictions are displayed on simple charts. Starting tomorrow you'll be able to see charts showing past predictions versus actual prices. Any constructive feedback would be greatly appreciated!
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