Bitcoin News Roundup for Oct. 5, 2020 - finance.yahoo.com
I like Square as a company and see a lot of people are bullish about it. However, a few things stop me from investing. Be interested to hear thoughts but at the moment I am a Square bear. Management Jack Dorsey is a visionary. I don’t think this is controversial. However, his track record at Twitter is worrying for shareholders. Be it daily active user growth, ambition with acquisitions but ultimately failure to monetise a fantastic platform where you have big corporations, celebrities and even the President reaching out to 200m daily active users for free. With Square, the closed loop business model of businesses and consumers is again a fantastic concept that could break the power of Visa/Mastercard. Execution remains to be seen, of course. Competition Square operate in a highly competitive field for consumers and businesses. Let’s take consumers based on Square’s fast-growing Cash App. It offers things a normal bank does like deposits, ATM access, money transfer. If it becomes a fully-fledged bank offering loans, credit; it is competing against the likes of big incumbents (e.g. JP Morgan, Bank of America). Granted they’re dinosaur firms but they already have a huge customer base that are older and, therefore, have more money and deposits. This means it is much easier for them to monetise their customers resulting in high ARPU. Why would these lucrative customers, en-masse, want to uproot their finances to Square when their existing providers will be providing the same service by copying Square, as JP Morgan have done this week? Link For businesses, Square’s provides software offering (invoicing, PoS, online store) but face strong competition from the likes of Shopify who are taking a fully integrated service approach to SMEs which allows them to take their business online but also manage all their backend processes, including payments. This is a highly convenient service for entrepreneurs. Shopify already has 6% share of the online retail market. Square also provides hardware products which make it easy for SMEs, in particular, to take payments. However, there is evidence that retail is facing a more permanent shift in the US vs. the rest of the world with 60% less footfall today than a year ago Link. 58% of Square’s GPV is from food/drink, retail and professional services. Square may have good market share but it is a shrinking industry. And as a final piece, competitors in both spaces are generally in very healthy financial shape: Paypal, Shopify, Global Payments, Western Union and big banks are well-capitalised. Valuation Perhaps you can get over the above with the fact that Square has strong network effects and are able to win customers cheaply. However, in my opinion, Square is priced for perfection. Simply looking at a price/sales metric, it is trading 13x LTM. This is high but maybe relatively reasonable for a fast-growing business. However, 25% of Square’s revenue is accounted by Bitcoin “revenue”. This brings little value to Square (2% gross profit) and even Square themselves discount this revenue in their KPIs because it is “out of their control and not reflective of Square’s performance”. Now onto profits. It is not fair to be too hard on Square’s profitability. After all, it is in high growth phase and its marketing costs were its highest opex line item at roughly 35% for YTD. However, a cursory look at it is Enterprise Value / EBITDA (forward look to Dec2020), it is 242x. If we give credit for Square’s business plan for a further two years, today’s Enterprise Value over broker consensus forecast EBITDA for 2022, it is still a heady 77x. This is when Square is supposed to have EBITDA of $1bn which is three times more than it is forecast for Dec 2020. Priced to perfection. If you compare it to Paypal, it is trading at 39x and 27x EV / EBITDA for Dec 2020 and 2022. Conclusion Square has formidable backers like Ark Invest. I am also not a great believer in “dumb retail” overvaluing a stock for a prolonged period of time. But for reasons above, I am cautious with Square and yet it keeps climbing so please tell me what I am missing…
The Dow fell 525.05, or 1.92%, to 26,763.13, the Nasdaq lost 330.65, or 3.02%, to 10,632.98, and the S&P 500 declined 78.65, or 2.37%, to 3,236.92. The S&P 500 dropped 2.4% on Wednesday in a broad-based retreat that reflected cash-raising efforts. The Nasdaq Composite fell 3.0%, the Russell 2000 fell 3.0%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.9%. U.S. equity futures were firmer in early trading following an agreement on a continuing resolution to avoid a government shutdown and J&J announcing that it has begun a large phase 3 trial of its COVID-19 vaccine. However, the early gains did not hold and the major averages were all in the red by midday. All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed sharply lower between 1.1% (health care) and 4.6% (energy), and traditional safe-haven assets did not see the usual appreciation in times of equity weakness. An initial weakness in the mega-cap stocks, however, gradually spilled over to the broader market, and the negative price action appeared to reinforce the idea that the market's recent pullback may not yet have run its course. The CBOE Volatility Index increased 6.4% to 28.58, which was a relatively modest gain. Losses steepened in the afternoon without much interest to buy the dip. Shares of AAPL fell 4% while TSLA fell 10% post-Battery Day. On a related note, UBS resumed coverage on Apple with a Neutral rating, versus a prior Buy rating. Data from the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering shows there are now 31.7M confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide, including 6.9M in the U.S., and 972,372 deaths due to the disease, including 201,000 in the U.S. Separately, the House passed a government funding bill through Dec. 11 that the Senate is expected to pass later this week. Notwithstanding this piece of good news, general uncertainty surrounding the election, the coronavirus, and the economy likely increased the cash appeal. In other auto news, California Governor Gavin Newsom announced that he will "aggressively move the state further away from its reliance on climate change-causing fossil fuels while retaining and creating jobs and spurring economic growth," issuing an executive order requiring sales of all new passenger vehicles to be zero-emission by 2035 and additional measures to "eliminate harmful emissions from the transportation sector." Among the notable gainers was WDC, which rose 6.7% after the company announced that it is reorganizing and creating separate business units for its Flash and Hard Drive product businesses. Among the notable losers was JPM, which was lower by 1.6% after Bloomberg reported that the bank is set to pay close to $1B to resolve market manipulation investigations by U.S. authorities into its trading of metals futures and Treasury securities. Additionally, shares of DAL fell 2.2% as Bloomberg said that the airline is in talks with EADSY to delay at least 40 aircraft deliveries planned for this year due to the airline's struggles with a travel market hit by the coronavirus pandemic. Elsewhere, European stocks closed higher Wednesday as investors reacted to key data releases from the euro zone and weighed up the possibility of further stimulus measures for the region. Stocks in Asia-Pacific were mixed on Wednesday.
The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.4% to 94.32, reaching its best level in nearly four months.
EUUSD: -0.4% to 1.1657
GBP/USD: -0.2% to 1.2712
USD/CNH: +0.7% to 6.8255
USD/JPY: +0.5% to 105.41
U.S. Treasuries ended Wednesday on a modestly lower note, but once again, intraday action was confined to a narrow range. The trading day started with modest losses after overnight action saw a rally in European markets, which reflected a rebound in risk tolerance. However, that rebound was short-lived, resulting in a slide into the European close and more weakness on Wall Street.
2-yr: UNCH at 0.13%
3-yr: +1 bp to 0.15%
5-yr: +1 bp to 0.27%
10-yr: +1 bp to 0.68%
30-yr: +1 bp to 1.43%
Oil rose more than 1% on Wednesday, supported by U.S. government data that showed crude and fuel inventories dropped last week, although concerns about the ongoing coronavirus pandemic capped gains. Spot gold dipped 1.5% to $1,870.11 per ounce, having hit its lowest since Aug. 12 at $1,865.03.
WTI crude: +1.0% to $39.94/bbl
Gold: -2.0% to $1868.90/ozt
Copper: -2.2% to $2.993/lb
Bitcoin fell as investors sold equities, gold and other fiat currencies on renewed coronavirus concerns.
Bitcoin: $10,331.92 (24hr: -1.71%)
Ethereum: $369.66 (24hr: -4.38%)
Ripple: $0.22 (24hr: -2.02%)
FAAMG + some penny stocks +18.5% YTD
Spoos +0.2% YTD
Old man -6.2% YTD
Russy -13% YTD
What Patrick, the Cat says?
The S&P 500 is down 5.3% in September while the Nasdaq Composite is down 6.9%. The market could go either way today (to state the obvious). Summaryscrapedfromtheinterweb.Took0.36seconds.
Many thanks to u/kvramji and u/inertia_2017 whose original Acorns (and subsequently Raiz) guide this is built on top of (with a few FAQs from Raiz themselves). This post was last updated on October 23, 2020, and I'll endeavour to update it periodically. What is Raiz? Raiz is a financial service, helping you to save and invest your money. They enable Australians to start early, invest often, and reach their financial goals. How does Raiz work? Raiz helps you proactively invest. One key feature is round-ups; we round up each of your transactions to the nearest dollar, and invest the change into a diversified portfolio. Simply connect a debit card, or other funding source, then provide us with some basic information. We give you the option of choosing a portfolio that is in line with your investment goals and the amount of risk you’re comfortable taking. Note that Raiz offers other great ways of investing besides round-ups, for more info please see this article. What are the fees? Once an account is opened, there are no fees on $0 balances and after that there is a monthly fee as follows:
An rough idea of monthly fees on a range of balances can be seen below:
Average Monthly Balance
All portfolios (exc. Sapphire)
Any other fees, including any future changes can be found here. Raiz Beginners Guide What’s Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)? Dollar Cost Averaging is basically spreading your investments in such a way that you can take advantage of the ever fluctuating daily price of stocks. The best example of this concept is given in a simple example here. What do you mean by Portfolio? Raiz uses the money which is put into the app by making you pick a type of profile which is differentiated from one another by the risk involved, as well as a few other characteristics (socially responsible, or an exposure to Bitcoin). The risk factor varies, depending on the portfolio. A breakdown based on portfolio can be found in the table below, including the minimum suggested investment timeframe (MSIT):
Risk Level (Raiz Defined)
Low to Moderate
Moderate to High
3 to 5 years
5 to 7 years
Moderate to High
3 to 5 years
NOTE: Once you decide which portfolio to go by, try to not change between portfolios if you see a loss in the value of the account initially. Stick by it and don’t keep changing portfolio, because you might lose more while changing portfolio because it involves selling and buying stocks at different rates. What portfolio should I pick? Common question. It all depends on the amount of risk you are willing to take. There are also portfolios available if you'd prefer a socially responsible portfolio, or an exposure to Bitcoin. The longer you intend to hold your money in your account, the higher risk you might be willing to take. NOTE: Do NOT panic when you see a down day with a loss against your portfolio. The BEST thing you can think of is DCA. If you have set up recurring investments, you are going to see gains as soon as the stocks go up in price. Which portfolio performs the best? Common question. Raiz releases an annual report that provides a summary of portfolio performance, typically in August. Portfolio performance for the past two years, for all portfolios (excluding Sapphire) can be found here. Something to note: past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Just because a portfolio has done well over the years, it is no guarantee that will continue to be the case, and things such as pandemics, market crashes and the like do happen. Pick a portfolio that suits your needs. What is Raiz Rewards? This is a feature in Raiz which gives you some percentage of the money spent for purchasing with vendors they have tie ups with. The method that you use varies slightly for online and in store purchases. Online Vendors To ensure you can get the rewards, go to your PC to the online retail store and add items to the cart. Make sure you go via the Raiz website (or App) to the vendor either on the PC or mobile. Finalize the payments via the link that Raiz takes you by and finish the purchase. In Store Vendors To ensure you can get the rewards, go to your App, click Rewards -> In-Store. Click the vendor option, and select 'Activate Now'. Then, go shopping in store with that reward partner. Make sure you use a card that is linked to your Raiz account. Payment of Rewards This percentage that is listed in Raiz Rewards can take up to 90 days (typically 30 days for online, 90 days for in store purchases/Raiz Energy) to show up under the Raiz Rewards column in the "History" window in the mobile app. The percentage varies with each vendor. What about dividends? Dividends get paid periodically on the ETF holdings that you have, proportional to the amount of each ETF you own on as of the ex-dividend date. These dividends are invested into your Raiz account, approximately one business day after payment date. Raiz run an annual blog post outlining the dates that dividends are expected to be paid (they vary slightly). That can be found here. What about taxes? Raiz will provide you with tax information at the end of financial year which tells you how to report any earnings from your Raiz account. It comes in the form of a Tax Statement, and is typically available in the third week of July. This can be found in app by going to My Settings -> Support -> View Statements How long do transactions stay in pending? Raiz typically takes up to five business days for taking the money from your account and buying shares and for it to show up as processed. So don’t panic if it takes a few days. It’s a common thing. Well I've read through this and I've got another issue - where can I go for help? The Raiz Support crew are available to help you out with your Raiz issues. I've had personal experiences in the past where I've needed a hand, and they've been really great. You can find more info on how to contact them on the Raiz Support webpage. Or hit them up on Twitter, Facebook, etc.
Should the federal government institute a mandatory buyback of assault weapons? No
Should a business be able to deny service to a customer if the request conflicts with the owner’s religious beliefs? If they are not engaged in interstate commerce, the Federal Government shouldn't hold any power to legislate on the matter. At the state level (and federal if interstate) Yes, so long as they are not discriminating on the basis of race, sex, sexual orientation, transgender, or other uncontrollable factors.
Should the government continue to fund Planned Parenthood? Yes, with oversight to make sure the money is going o where it is supposed to.
Should universities provide “trigger warnings” and “safe spaces” for students? No
Do you support the death penalty? Generally no, with the possible exception of treason during an insurrection or invasion.
Should the government support a separation of church and state by removing references to God on money, federal buildings, and national monuments? No, this is referring to God as a concept.
Should businesses be required to have women on their board of directors? No
Do you support the legalization of same sex marriage? Yes, through a constitutional amendment. At the state level, yes.
Should the military allow women to serve in combat roles? Yes as long as they meet the same physical standards as men and pass the same tests.
Should marital rape be classified and punished as severely as non-marital rape? This should be a state-level issue, but yes.
Should terminally ill patients be allowed to end their lives via assisted suicide? Only if there is no chance of survival.
Should hate speech be protected by the first amendment? It is, and yes.
Should gay couples have the same adoption rights as straight couples? Yes
Should states be allowed to display the Confederate flag on government property? They have the right, but I would prefer my state not.
Should women be allowed to wear a Niqāb, or face veil, to civic ceremonies? I am not fully certain. I am leaning towards yes, as long as another woman has verified her identity.
Should welfare recipients be tested for drugs? Only if they have a criminal history related to drug abuse.
Should employers be required to pay men and women the same salary for the same job? This shouldn't be a federal issue unless it involves interstate commerce. But at the state-level (and federal if interstate), Yes if they work the same positions and for the same hours and conditions.
Should there be fewer or more restrictions on current welfare benefits? More, reform it so it supplements, rather than replaces, an income.
Should the government raise the federal minimum wage? The federal government should not have the power to enact minimum wage laws unless it involves interstate commerce, in which case yes, it should be $15 an hour. Each state should be able to set its own laws on the matter.
Should the government make cuts to public spending in order to reduce the national debt? No.
Should the U.S. increase tariffs on imported products from China? Yes, China should be punished for violations of international law.
Should businesses be required to provide paid leave for full-time employees during the birth of a child or sick family member? At the state-level, yes. At the federal level, yes, if they are involved in interstate commerce.
Should the government increase the tax rate on profits earned from the sale of stocks, bonds, and real estate? Capital gains should be taxed the same as ordinary income.
Should the current estate tax rate be decreased? No, I am satisfied with the current system.
Should the U.S. continue to participate in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)? No.
Should the President offer tax breaks to individual companies to keep jobs in the U.S.? No, but put tariffs on all imported goods.
Should the government prevent “mega mergers” of corporations that could potentially control a large percentage of market share within its industry? No.
Do you believe labor unions help or hurt the economy? Help, in theory, but are sometimes harmful.
Should the government break up Amazon, Facebook and Google? No.
Should the government add or increase tariffs on products imported into the country? Yes, all imported goods should be taxed 20%.
Should the U.S. raise or lower the tax rate for corporations? Keep at current rate, but close all loopholes.
Should the government require businesses to pay salaried employees, making up to $46k/year, time-and-a-half for overtime hours? At the state level, yes. At the federal level, only if they are involved in interstate commerce.
Do you support the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)? No.
Would you favor an increased sales tax in order to reduce property taxes? No.
Should pension plans for federal, state, and local government workers be transitioned into privately managed accounts? No.
Should the government subsidize farmers? For now, yes, but once we get out of trade deals, put tariffs on all imports, and tax all interstate sales, subsidies should be ended.
Should the government use economic stimulus to aid the country during times of recession? No, recessions are natural cycles.
Should the Federal Reserve Bank be audited by Congress? Yes, we should know where that money is going.
Should the IRS create a free electronic tax filing system? Yes.
Should an in-state sales tax apply to online purchases of in-state buyers from out-of-state sellers? No, the federal government should not enact an intrastate sales tax.
Should pension payments be increased for retired government workers? Yes, adjust them yearly for inflation.
Should U.S. citizens be allowed to save or invest their money in offshore bank accounts? Yes, as long as all income is reported.
Should the government classify Bitcoin as a legal currency? Yes, but maintain the system of the dollar and cash as a legal currency.
Should the government acquire equity stakes in companies it bails out during a recession? No.
Do you support charter schools? No.
Should the government decriminalize school truancy? No for Elementary school. For middle and high school, no social studies and English, yes for everything else.
Should there be more restrictions on the current process of purchasing a gun? States and the federal government should not be allowed to enact any restrictions on black powder weapons or ammunition for them. For cartridge firearms, the federal government should only have the power to regulate interstate sale of them. At the state level, cartridge firearms should require a license to obtain. The process should involve passing a mental and physical health exam, having a decent criminal record, and passing a written and shooting exam. Handguns and centerfire semi-automatic weapons should have higher standards for licensing and should be registered before being obtained, but automatic CCW to anyone who has a license for a handgun. fully automatic weapons should be illegal to sell, except to collectors, who must meet an even higher standard to obtain.
Should victims of gun violence be allowed to sue firearms dealers and manufacturers? No, this is just dumb.
Should the President of the United States have the power to deploy military troops in order to stop protests? If any state governments are overthrown, yes. Otherwise, only if the Governor of a state requests assistance.
Should teachers be allowed to carry guns at school? Yes if they have a valid license 9see above).
Should it be illegal to burn the American flag? No, but I have no respect for anyone who does.
Should the state government order schools to provide online only classes in order to combat coronavirus? No, let each school decide.
Should there be term limits set for members of Congress? Yes, maximum four terms for the House, and maximum two for the Senate.
Should people on the “no-fly list” be banned from purchasing guns and ammunition? No, this denies one of due process rights.
Are you in favor of decriminalizing drug use? Yes, for most but not all drugs (basically the really bad ones, e.g., meth, heroin, etc;)
Should the NSA (National Security Agency) be allowed to collect basic metadata of citizen’s phone calls such as numbers, timestamps, and call durations? Only with a warrant and probable cause of a crime.
Should the Supreme Court be reformed to include more seats and term limits on judges? No, this is just trying to pack the court, which should not be politicized.
Should the government regulate social media sites, as a means to prevent fake news and misinformation? No, this violates free speech.
Do you support the Patriot Act? Not the clause that allows warrantless searches.
Should the government be allowed to seize private property, with reasonable compensation, for public or civic use? Only for public land and not for privatization, and the owner must be paid for losses in full.
Should college sports be played in the fall of 2020? Yes, but let teams decide.
Should local police increase surveillance and patrol of Muslim neighborhoods? No, this just breeds resentment.
Should the government raise the retirement age for Social Security? No
Should the government pass laws which protect whistleblowers? Yes, so long as national security isn't compromised.
Should the redrawing of Congressional districts be controlled by an independent, non-partisan commission? Yes, gerrymandering breeds corruption.
Should internet service providers be allowed to speed up access to popular websites (that pay higher rates) at the expense of slowing down access to less popular websites (that pay lower rates)? If they are privately owned, yes.
Should the U.S. government grant immunity to Edward Snowden? For his leaks on domestic surveillance, yes. Some other things, maybe not.
Should foreign terrorism suspects be given constitutional rights? Yes.
Do you support the killing of Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani? Yes.
Should the U.S. continue to support Israel? Yes.
Should the U.S. accept refugees from Syria? Yes, but only after extensive background checks to confirm that they are not a threat and are genuine refugees and not economic migrants.
Should the government increase or decrease military spending? Decrease by streamlining it, and making it more efficient, through eliminating wasteful spending.
Should the military fly drones over foreign countries to gain intelligence and kill suspected terrorists? No, unless said country has approved it, and American citizens should be given fair trials.
Should the military be allowed to use enhanced interrogation techniques, such as waterboarding, to gain information from suspected terrorists? No.
Should every 18 year old citizen be required to provide at least one year of military service? No, but maintain the Selective Service system and allow states to draft people if necessary.
Should Jerusalem be recognized as the capital of Israel? Yes.
Should the U.S. go to war with Iran? No, they should be disarmed through diplomatic channels.
Should the U.S. remain in the United Nations? Yes.
Should the U.S. remain in NATO? Yes.
Should the U.S. defend other NATO countries that maintain low military defense budgets relative to their GDP? Yes, but get them to pay their share.
Should the United States pull all military troops out of Afghanistan? If the Afghan government wants us to, then yes.
Should the U.S. sell military weapons to India in order to counter Chinese and Russian influence? Yes.
Should the U.S. conduct military strikes against North Korea in order to destroy their long-range missile and nuclear weapons capabilities? No, use all diplomatic means first.
Do you support President Obama’s move to lift the trade and travel embargo on Cuba? Yes.
Should it be illegal to join a boycott of Israel? No.
Should the government cancel production of the F-35 fighter? Yes, until the price has been lowered or our deficits have been drastically reduced, and its hardware is drastically improved.
Do you support the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (Obamacare)? No.
Should people be required to work in order to receive Medicaid? No.
Should cities open drug “safe havens” where people who are addicted to illegal drugs can use them under the supervision of medical professionals? Yes.
Do you support the legalization of Marijuana? The federal government should not have the power to ban marijuana, except to regulate or ban its interstate sale, which it shouldn't at the state level, legalize.
Should the government regulate the prices of life-saving drugs? No.
Should health insurers be allowed to deny coverage to individuals who have a pre-existing condition? At the federal level, no, if they are operating in interstate commerce. At the state level, no.
Should there be more or less privatization of veterans’ healthcare? Less, improve the current system.
Should the federal government increase funding of health care for low income individuals (Medicaid)? Yes.
Should the federal government be allowed to negotiate drug prices for Medicare? Yes.
Should the government fund the World Health Organization? Yes.
Should the government increase environmental regulations to prevent climate change? No.
Should researchers be allowed to use animals in testing the safety of drugs, vaccines, medical devices, and cosmetics? Yes, but not for cosmetics.
Should the U.S. expand offshore oil drilling? No, but maintain current rigs.
Do you support the use of hydraulic fracking to extract oil and natural gas resources? Allow it to be legal, but don't subsidize.
Should the government stop construction of the Dakota Access pipeline? No.
Should disposable products (such as plastic cups, plates, and cutlery) that contain less than 50% of biodegradable material be banned? No.
Should drilling be allowed in the Alaska Wildlife Refuge? No.
Should cities be allowed to offer private companies economic incentives to relocate? Yes.
Should the government give tax credits and subsidies to the wind power industry? No, no industry should be favored.
Should the government require children to be vaccinated for preventable diseases? No.
Do you support the use of nuclear energy? Yes, lessen restrictions, but no subsidies.
Should producers be required to label genetically engineered foods (GMOs)? Yes.
Should illegal immigrants have access to government-subsidized healthcare? No.
Should immigrants be deported if they commit a serious crime? Yes, after serving their sentence.
Should illegal immigrants be offered in-state tuition rates at public colleges within their residing state? No.
Should the U.S. build a wall along the southern border? No, but make a high tech surveillance barrier instead of a physical wall. This is because a physical wall would be too costly and ineffective.
Should local law enforcement be allowed to detain illegal immigrants for minor crimes and transfer them to federal immigration authorities? Yes.
Should sanctuary cities receive federal funding? No.
Should the U.S. increase restrictions on its current border security policy? Yes.
Should immigrants be required to pass a citizenship test to demonstrate a basic understanding of our country’s language, history, and government? Yes.
Should children of illegal immigrants be granted legal citizenship? Yes, if they were born here.
Should Muslim immigrants be banned from entering the country until the government improves its ability to screen out potential terrorists? No.
Should immigrants be required to learn English? Yes, if they wish to become citizens.
Should there be a temporary ban on all immigration into the United States? No, but increase border security.
Should the US increase or decrease the amount of temporary work visas given to high-skilled immigrant workers? Increase, our economy relies on businesses hiring the highest skilled workers at the lowest cost.
Should working illegal immigrants be given temporary amnesty? No.
Should immigrants to the United States be allowed to hold dual citizenship status? Yes.
Do you support Common Core national standards? Yes, but only for English and social studies.
Should a photo ID be required to vote? No, but gradually update voter rolls and purge voters who are required to be according tot eh Voting Registration act of 1993.
Should foreigners, currently residing in the United States, have the right to vote? No, only citizens should.
Should the minimum voting age be lowered? No.
Should the electoral college be abolished? No.
Should the US have a mail-in ballot process for whole states in local, state, and federal elections? No.
Should foreign lobbyists be allowed to raise money for American elections? No.
Should there be a limit to the amount of money a candidate can receive from a donor? No.
Should corporations, unions, and non-profit organizations be allowed to donate to political parties? No.
Should there be a 5-year ban on White House and Congressional officials from becoming lobbyists after they leave the government? No.
Should political candidates be required to release their recent tax returns to the public? No.
Should funding for local police departments be redirected to social and community based programs? No, increase funding and training for police departments in higher crime rate communities
Should police officers be required to wear body cameras? Yes.
Should convicted criminals have the right to vote? Yes, but only after completing their sentence and probation.
Should drug traffickers receive the death penalty? No.
Should non-violent prisoners be released from jail in order to reduce overcrowding? Yes, but have them do community service.
Do you support mandatory minimum prison sentences for people charged with drug possession? No.
Should the government hire private companies to run prisons? No.
Should prisons ban the use of solitary confinement for juveniles? No, but it is currently being overused
Should the US assassinate suspected terrorists in foreign countries? No, capture, interrogate, and imprison them instead
What is your position on Abortion? Adopt a constitutional amendment overturning Roe v Wade and allow state to enact their own laws. At the state level, abortion should be legal within the first 20 weeks, but afterwards, should be banned except for exceptional cases.
For Trading October 1st Welcome to Q4 Rally Continues Mega & Small Caps Rule the Day Today’s market was very sloppy with the DJIA trading +260 to -120 and closing +36.20 (.13%), buoyed by BA, which at the high of the day had added 70 DP’s and finished nearer its low adding only 16. The biggest gainers for the day were V, a credit card company and WMT, the biggest retailer with 24 and 22 respectively. The real strength came from the NASDAQ, with the mega-caps +159 (1.42%) and the small-cap Russell +23.51 (1.56%). Interesting dichotomy. The S&P was somewhere in the middle +23.51 (.53%) and the Transports were -18.61 (.17%). Market internals 2:1 up on both, and volume was about 40% less than yesterday’s end of quarter numbers. With all the numbers this morning out of the way, tomorrow’s September employment numbers should set the tone. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows you to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! TUESDAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/dJGunoIqLZU v With my guest: David Weinstein on Bio-Hacking !! Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/5Qq05sql0Po SECTORS: There wasn’t a lot of sector news, but we did have some more news on layoffs for airlines, and assorted companies across all industries from All State insurance to GS to Marathon Petroleum. This flies in the face of the government’s employment number and initial claims as well as anything they can point to show how well we are all doing. I’ve given up on thinking that these numbers are real, when I drive around town and see all the closed forever signs popping up on everything from dry cleaners to restaurants to anything that isn’t a franchise of a Dunkin or Panera, that are now empty. I just don’t understand how our “consumer” based economy will function with over 850,000 new initial claims every week and people that are leaving the employment seeking behind. And Starbucks raises their dividend Best Buy reports record sales increases while they’re closing many of its stores. I guess I just don’t get it! New Group: AIR & CRUISE LINES were HIGHER with CCL -.13, RCL +.57, NCLH +.10, AAL +.20, DAL +.37, LUV +.11, UAL +.23, HA -.24, ALK -.03, and XTN $58.43 +.28 (.48%). FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN -.18, BGS +.08, FLO +.09, CPB +.15, CAG +.39, MDLZ +.55, KHC +.45, CALM +.03, JJSF +1.51, SAFM +1.53, HRL +.39, SJM +.48, PPC +.19, KR +.11, and PBJ $33.05 +.34 (1.04%). BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +1.89, ABBV -.19, REGN +8.36, ISRG +.98, GILD +.11, MYL -.03, TEVA +.06, VRTX +1.39, BHC +.32, INCY +2.69, ICPT +.62, LABU +2.14, and IBB $136.67 +1.26 (.93%). CANNABIS: was MIXED with TLRY +.01, CGC -.06, CRON -.01, GWPH -.85, NBEV +.13, CURLF -.10, KERN +.51, and MJ $10.39 -.02 (.19%). DEFENSE was LOWER with LMT -2.28, GD -.65, TXT -.98, NOC -3.68, BWXT +.34, TDY -2.48, RTX -.14, and ITA $159.19 +.49. RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.16, JWN +.68, KSS +.93, DDS +.44, WMT +2.95, TGT +1.03, TJX +1.35, RL +1.03, UAA +.60, LULU +10.63, TPR +.22, CPRI +.12 and XRT $51.01 +1.35 (2.72%). MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were HIGHER with GOOGL +24.40, AMZN +66.77, AAPL +.99, FB +4.50, NFLX +26.68, NVDA +2.54, TSLA +13.79, BABA -4.33, BIDU -.14, CMG -5.71, CRM +2.68, BA +1.25, CAT -2.74, DIS -.78, and XLK $117.93 +1.23 (1.05%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were MIXED with GS -1.82, JPM +.63, BAC -.02, MS -1.04, C +.20, PNC -.48, AIG +.19, TRV -.38, V +3.28, and XLF $24.11 +.04 (.17%). OIL, $38.72, Oil was near recent highs and sold off hard today touching $37.61 (down about 6%) before a minor rally back to close -1.50. The stocks were LOWER with XLE $29.03 -.92 (3.07%). GOLD $1,916.30 +20.80, opened HIGHER and made a slightly higher high and a higher low, closing near the highs of the day. There were several “unusual options action” looking for another 10-12% on the upside before year end. BITCOIN: closed $10,645 -125. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $10.87 -.10 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
For Trading October 1st Welcome to Q3 Rally Continues PLTR Prices @ $7.25 ASAN $21.00 Today’s market was looking pretty ugly on the overnight futures reaction to the debate, but we had a deluge of positive data coming from ADP, Case Schiller, Chicago PMI, another look at Q2 GDP and mortgage applications. We moved from -200 DJIA to +100 in the last 20 minutes leading up to the open and it only got better from there. We had the Treasury Secretary from the Seeking Alpha virtual meeting talking about his conversations with Speaker Pelosi and gave some hopeful words, which added gas to the fire, and we were headed to +550 on the DJIA with the rest of the market following. When the dust settled we finished with the DJIA +329.04 (1.2%), NASDAQ +82.26 (.74%), S&P 500 +27.53 (.83%), the Russell +2.97 (.20%) and the DJ Transports the only one lower at -71.79 (.63%). Market internals were unimpressive although volume was about 30% higher but that was likely the effect of the end of the quarter. There were only 2 DJIA lower (DIS & NKE) while the biggest gainers were AXP, UNH, AMGN, GS, & HD. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows you to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! TUESDAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/dJGunoIqLZU v With my guest: David Weinstein on Bio-Hacking !! Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/e9UkY-d19rw SECTORS: There wasn’t a lot of sector news, but we did have some news from DIS after the close laying off 28,000 employees at the “parks” division with full time, part time, as well as executives. The stock finished today $124.00, better than last night’s reaction but still lower by $1.40 (1.12%). Micron (MU) was sold off even though they beat top and bottom lines but sellers took control and after it traded up to $52.67 on the headline, it spent the day today selling off and closed on the lows at $46.90 -3.81 (7.51%). This is why I always try to NOT trade earnings reports. This is a prime example of being right on the numbers and having it cost you money. Becton Dickenson reported positive results on their “antigen-based test’ and was higher, closing $233.71 +8.28 (3.67%). Moderna (MRNA) was also higher during the day with a high of $75.39 but finished $70.75 +.23 (.33%). PLL who signed a 5-year agreement with TESLA for an element used in batteries that had traded $54.50 and since closing $37 +26 has had a couple of weaker days finishing the day today $23.69 -1.69 (6.66%) but still well up from $11.00. New Group: AIR & CRUISE LINES were HIGHER with CCL +.27, RCL +.50, NCLH +.80, AAL +.16, DAL +.12, UAL +.59, HA +.15, ALK -.04 and XTN $58.15 -.18 (.32%). FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +.51, BGS -.04, FLO +.23, CPB +.35, CAG +.17, MDLZ +.96, KHC +.34, CALM -.22, JJSF +1.04, SAFM -.03, HRL +.38, SJM +2.51, PPC +.17, KR +.19, and PBJ $32.72 +.22 (.68%). BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +1.33, ABBV +1.28, REGN -12.51, ISRG +19.45, GILD +1.45, MYL +.26, TEVA +.16, VRTX +1.81, BHC +.77, INCY +2.31, ICPT +.01, LABU -.23, and IBB $135.41 +.80 (.59%). CANNABIS: was MIXED with TLRY +.11, CGC -.15, CRON -.01, GWPH -.47, NBEV +.01, CURLF +.16, KERN -.04, and MJ $10.36 -.07 (.67%). DEFENSE was LOWER with LMT -4.98, GD -.12, TXT -.68, NOC -7.90, BWXT -.96, TDY -1.73, RTX +.16, and ITA $159.79 -.07. RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.07, JWN +.29, KSS +.15, DDS +3.01, WMT WMT +3.13, TGT +1.05, TJX +1.49, RL +.63, UAA +.15, LULU +7.71, TPR -.07, CPRI +.33 and XRT $49.66 +.35 (.71%). MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were HIGHER with GOOGL -.07, AMZN +17.12, AAPL +2.08, FB +1.01, NFLX +7.31, NVDA +14.12, TSLA +12.03, BABA +18.07, BIDU +5.39, CMG -11.28, CRM +4.35, BA +5.70, CAT +2.09, DIS -.91, and XLK $117.07 +1.34 (1.16%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were HIGHER with interest rates with GS +4.18, JPM +.87, BAC +.36, MS +1.18, C +.72, PNC +3.88, AIG +.29, TRV +.56, V +.96, and XLF $24.09 +.34 (1.42%). OIL, $40.22 +.93, Oil was in a fairly tight range all day. After the oil sold off yesterday it had an “inside day” today, so no real hint to which way it is going out of this consolidation. The stocks were MIXED with XLE $30.03 -.01 (.03%). GOLD $1,895.50 – 7.70, opened HIGHER and made a slightly higher high and a higher low, closing mid-range but down on the day. There were several “unusual options action” looking for another 10-12% on the upside before year end. We sold the balance of the 3X silver ETF calls at $2.10. BITCOIN: closed $10,770 -45. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $11.01 -.02 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
For Trading September 17th NASDAQ SELLOFF SNOWFLAKE SURPRISE FED DAY LETDOWN Today’s market started off with another rally and at the highs we were +369 on the DJIA, but as Chairman Powell was talking at his press conference we started to fade and we had a downdraft to +130, and in the last 15 minutes we had another one taking us to just above unchanged to finish within pennies of the low +36.78 (.13%). NASDAQ was -139.85 (1.25%), S&P 500 -15.71 (.46%), the Russell +14.17 (.92%) and the DJ Transports +78.18 (.68%) and made a new all-time high at 11,690.82. Market internals were generally healthy with NYSE 1.6:1 and NASDAQ just slightly lower at 1.5:1, with a 20% increase in volume. The DJIA was split 15:15 with only HD, HD, and AAPL 25DP losers and BA +26, the only gainer of $26 DP’s. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! TUESDAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/dJGunoIqLZU v With my guest: David Weinstein on Bio-Hacking !! Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/rEftfx47Vdc SECTORS: We started off the day with Retail sales +.6%, a slight disappointment, although the retail sector was mixed to higher. UAA was a big winner on the back of a new line of women’s basketball shoes and finished the day $12.29 +.63 (5.4%). FDX and ADBE went in separate directions even though they both blew away their earnings numbers. FDX helped drive the Transports to a new high today and finished $250.30 +13.63 (5.8%). ADBE went the other way after the stock moved up to $522 +25 in post market trading but when it opened this morning it could only make it to $505.50 and then fell to 478 by 11:00 and worked its way down to close $476, literally only pennies off the low and -21.67 (4.33%), and almost 50 off the extended hours high. Facebook has some problems with the FTC and that weighed on the stock and today several celebrities calling for a 1-day boycott of the social media site. Whatever it was, the stock closed near its low for the day at $263.52 -8.90 (3.3%). GE gave guidance for cash-flow positive during this 2nd half and the market liked it, sending it up 10.7% at $6.75 +.65. There were two IPOs today for cloud-based software. FROG was priced at $4 and the stock opened $71, traded up to $77 before a bit of a selloff to finish $64.33, or 46% over its pricing. SNOWFLAKE grabbed all the attention being offered at $120 after raising the price several times and then opening $240, moving up to 319 before selling off to close $253.93 133.9% above its offering. FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with TSN -.04, BGS +,71. FLO +.14, CPB -.09, CAG -.07, MDLZ -.12, KHC -.41, CALM +1.24, JJSF -.12, SAFM -.12, HRL -.36, SJM -2.40, PPC -.04, KR -.58, and PBJ $32.87 -.26 (.78%). BIOPHARMA was MIXED with BIIB -2.06, ABBV -.82, REGN _10.75, ISRG -24.18, GILD -.65, MYL +.13, TEVA +.13, VRTX +.70, BHC +.64, INCY -1.49, ICPT +.73, LABU+3.74, and IBB $136.70 +.63 (.46%). CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.42, CGC +.28, CRON +.04, GWPH -1.23, ACB -.05, NBEV +.03, CURLF +.31, KERN +.18, and MJ $11.43 +.07 (.62%). DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +3.06, GD +1.64, TXT +/.54, NOC +5.48, BWXT +.55, TDY +2.25, RTX +1.81, and ITA $167.67 +3.01 (1.83%). RETAIL: was MIXED with M +.13, JWN +.36, KSS +.89, DDS -.21, WMT -.48, TGT -.60, TJX +.50, RL +.65, UAA +.63, LULU -4.49, TPR +1.64, CPRI +1.04, XRT M$51.05 +.24 (.47%). FAANG & MEGA-CAP were LOWER with GOOGL -23.03, AMZN -70.13, AAPL -2.74, FB -8.02, NFLX -10.69, NVDA -15.82, TSLA -5.02, BABA +1.26, BIDU +.63, CRM +.68, CMG -2.92, BA +4.02, CAT +2.63, DIS +1.16, and XLK $114.67 -1.80 (1.55%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +3.19, JPM +.53, BAC +.33, MS +.73, C +1.34, PNC +2.35, AIG +1.16, TRV +1.02, AXP -.68, V -.19, and XLF $24.99 +.28 (1.13%). OIL, $40.16 +1.88, Oil was higher all day. I am looking for about another $1.00 or so before I would consider selling it for a correction. The stocks were higher with XLE $33.94 +1.31 (4.01%). GOLD $1,970.50 +4.30, opened higher but gave up most of the gains and while it did close up on the day, it was near the lows. I did a short update video Wed: https://youtu.be/KJgk-wmVJ4U I am still a bull on the metal, and we have a September bull call spread on using NEM 65/70 calls with a cost of $1.45, which closed today @ $2.35. BITCOIN: closed $11,015 + 200. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $12.07 +.12 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
For Trading September 15th Nikola Under the Microscope TIK TOK & ORCL Today’s market started off with a rally and then just kept on going. There were several interesting stories, but no doubt that today was an up day with solid internals, including 5:1 up volume on the NYSE. The DJIA +327.69 (1.18%), NASDAQ +203.11 (1.87%), S&P 500 +42.57 (1.27%) and the biggest gainer, the Russell +39.70 (2.85%) and the DJ Transports +98.20(.87%). A/D on NYSE was 4:1 while NASDAQ was 3.6:1 and volume was moderate. DJIA was 5:1 up with no double-digit losers and the winners were UNH +47, BA +34, HD & V +28DPs. Nothing overwhelming, just a broad-based rally. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! TUESDAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/DK2hmC0GXFk With my guest: Dennis Marlow! Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/rTuJflYygcI SECTORS: We started off the day with the news that TIK TOK rejected the MSFT deal and was going to become “partners” with ORCL. It’s still somewhat up in the air as to what that actually means, but ORCL rallied on the news, closing $59.46 +2.46 (4.3%) after trading as high as $61.50. Stay tuned and I’m sure they will figure it out! Also in the news was the purchase of IMMU by GILD. While the deal gives GILD more of a portfolio of cancer therapies, the question of price paid and when they would actually make a meaningful contribution took a little off the celebration. IMMU was an $8.00 stock as recently as April and had already moved up to $42, and it closed today $83.65 +41.41 (98%). GILD is paying $88.00 or just 11 times the April price. DKNG and CZR were part of a new alliance with ESPN (DIS) as their official “Daily Fantasy Gaming” partners. DKNG finished $48.62 +7.16 (17%), and CZR was $55.39 +5.28 (10.5%). Lennar (LEN) had blow-out earnings but the stock, up from the March low of $25 to close $79 managed a small rally to $80.50 before reversing and closing $75.85 -1.63. NKLA has had some awfully bad press lately but it rallied today. After falling from $54.56 last Tuesday to close out the week $32.13 -3.42 it was trading$35.79 +3.66 before the headline that the SEC was looking into the allegations made by both Hindenburg Capital and Citron, that they had misled investors in their promotional offerings. The stock fell to $31.50 and finished $32.88 + .75. More news to come. And last, NVDA is buying ARM Holdings from Softbank and both stocks rallied. NVDA finished the day $514.89 +28.31 (5.8%) and SFTBY closed $29.69 +2.19 (8%). FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +1.53, BGS +.83, FLO -.14, CPB +.32, CAG +.12, MDLZ +.36, KHC +.16, CALM +.26, JJSF +1.25, SAFM +4.08, HRL +.39, SJM +.15, PPC +.53, KR -1.52, and PBJ $33.31 +.09 (.25%). BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +8.38, ABBV +1.04, REGN +19.45, ISRG +13.80, GILD +1.70, MYL +.44, TEVA +.37, VRTX +6.84, BHC +.60, INCY +5.15, ICPT +2.44, LABU +9.43. and IBB $135.55 +7.76 (6.07%). CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.05, CGC +.26, CRON +.19, GWPH +9.99, ACB +.26, NBEV +.04, CURLF -.26, KERN -.08, and MJ $11.48 +.23 (2.04%). DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +5.35, GD +2.63, TXT +.91, NOC -.45, BWXT +.94, TDY +8.53, RTX +1.50, and ITA $165.85 +2.85 (1.75%). RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.17, JWN +.61, KSS +1.92, DDS +1.26, WMT +.45, TGT +1.35, TJX +1.35, RL +4.43, UAA +.65, LULU +.71, TPR +1.37, CPRI +1.23, and XRT $50.94 +1.17 (2.35%). FAANG & MEGA-CAP were HIGHER with GOOGL -3.38, AMZN -7.22, AAPL +3.94, FB +.73, NFLX -.03, NVDA +31.72, TSLA +50.73, BABA +2.85, BIDU +1.26, CRM +3.20, BA +4.98, CMG -23.83, CAT -.58, DIS -1.80, and XLK $115.33 +2.37 (2.1%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +.98, JPM +1.73, BAC +.31, MS +.90, C -2.62, PNC +2.38, AOG +.90, TRV +1.06, AXP +3.93, V +4.32, and XLF $25.05 +.34 (1.38%). OIL, $37.26 -.07, Oil was quiet and drifted all day. I am looking for about another $1.00 or so before I would consider buying it for a bounce. The stocks were mixed with XLE $32.87 +.25 (.77%). GOLD $1,963.70 + 15.80sold off early but didn’t break below the $1910 area I am using as support. It turned back and rallied and closed right near the highs. I did a short update video Wed: https://youtu.be/KJgk-wmVJ4U I am still a bull on the metal, and we have a September bull call spread on using NEM 65/70 calls with a cost of $1.45, which closed today @ $2.42. BITCOIN: closed $10,705 +365. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $11.85 +.62 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
For Trading September 10th Kinda Boring Day Nothing Exceptional Is TIK TOK Really a Deal? Today’s market started without a lot of market moving news, although the futures were higher as European markets shrugged off the overnight weakness that carried over to Asia and was higher. The JOLTs # came in at 6.615 million, above the 5.9 expected and there was also a slight revision higher for last month. The market actually had good reason to go lower again with the Astra Zenaca’s news on their vaccine trial, the lack of any stimulus action, and the lack of demand in airline travel. But it didn’t, and although we were higher all day, the volume was week and the A/D’s were nothing to write home about. The DJIA was +439.58 (1.6%) but was up over 700 but the last 30 minutes saw it fall back, NASDAQ +293.87 (2.7%), S&P 500 +67.12 (2%), the Russell +21.,89 (1.45%), and DJ Transports +164.11 (1.5%). The DJIA was exactly the opposite of yesterday with 26 higher and 4 down. The biggest winners were MSFT +57, HD +52, UNH +33 and AAPL +30 DPs and there were no double-digit losers. Tomorrow we have Initial and continuing claims. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! TODAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/DK2hmC0GXFk With my guest: Dennis Marlow! Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/bRFoE2jG1B8 SECTORS: We started off the day yesterday with GM taking a $2Billion stake in NKLA and NKLA planning to utilize the GM factories to build their “prospective” pickup truck. Both stocks were higher with NKLA gapping up to open $46.00 and trading as high as $54.56 and closing $50.05 +14.50 (40%), while GM opened $31.55, trading $33.33 and closing $32.38 +2.38 (7.93%). Today they figured out that an upstart with no experience and an old-line auto manufacturer that spend the last 3 decades doing poorly and eliminating several of their lines of business might not be all rainbows and lollipops and sent NKLA back in the opposite direction, losing a touch over half and closing $42.37 -7.68 (15.34%). GM fared better losing only a fraction. LULU posted solid earnings growth and a beat on both earnings and revenues, but it just wasn’t enough as the stock which closed $349.80 -11.61 but then fell to $324 and it was $329.50 -31.91 (8.83%). Today it fell to $315.25 and finished $323.93 -25.87 (7.4%). Slack did a little better and finished $25.24 -4.06, about $2.00 higher than it was trading in after-hours. Today’s action in TIF was not as bad as I would have expected with LVMH calling off their engagement based on some BS order from a government agency that said they should “postpone the marriage” until next year (long passed the agreed date) and essentially violating the agreement. Stay tuned for the lawyers’ statements on both sides. And the big winner was Intra-cellular Therapies, ITCI who had solid topline results for its Bi-polar drug and the stock closed yesterday $18.43 and after trading $42.99 in the pre-market it opened $31.15, traded to $33.74 and closed the day $31.86 +13.43 (72.87%). We also had news late this afternoon that there may be some room for negotiation with the powers that be, to find another way to deal with a deal that DOES NOT involve a sale of TIK TOK. So, does that mean that MSFT, WMT, CRM and any others give back the out-sized gains on the speculation that they were going to own it?? FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN -.33, BGS +.84, FLO +.20, CPB +.38, CAG +.87, MDLZ +1.11, KHC -.01, CALM -.12, JJSF -1.04, SAFM -.59, HRL +.42, SJM +1.60, PPC +.02, KR +.83, and PBJ $33.69 +.62 (1.88%). BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +4.10, ABBV +1.51, REGN +9.26, ISRG +25.31, GILD +.32, MYL -.39, TEVA +.07, VRTX +4.43, BHC +.27, INCY +1.65, ICPT _+.18, LABU +2.85, and IBB $129.36 +2.48 (1.95%). CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.06, CGC +.81, CRON +.11, GWPH +1.37, ACB +.04, NBEV +.03, CURLF +.04, KERN +.08, and MJ $11.75 +.44 (3.89%). DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +6.77, GD -.76, TXT +.26, NOC +4.85, BWXT +1.09, TDY -.42, RTX +.65, and ITA $162.42 +.28 (.17%). RETAIL: was LOWER with M -.06, JWN -.72, KSS -.15, DDS -.04, WMT +2.24, TGT +3.99, TJX -.49, RL -1.55, UAA -.35, LULU -22.80 (6.52%), TPR -.30, CPRI1.41 (7.89%), and XRT $51.27 +1.09 (2.17%). FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +29.40, AMZN +124.21, AAPL +5.69, FB +3.84, NFLX -4.27, NVDA +37.73 (7.92%), TSLA +44.73 (13.55%), BABA +4.32, BIDU +.02, CRM +11.73, BA +.42, CAT +4.87, DIS -.30, and XLK $117.33 +4.55 (4.03%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +1.02, JPM +1.33, BAC +.13, MS +1.08, C +.50, PNC -.39, AIG +.28, TRV +.92, AXP +.11, V +4.77, and XLF $24.89 +.25 (1.01%). OIL, $38.05 +1.29. Oil was higher in today’s trading and drifted all day. I am looking for about another $1.00 or so before I would consider buying it for a bounce. Nat Gas was unchanged at $2.406 and closed a gap left on the upside that occurred when we were long last month. I was looking at UNG (NG ETF) as a proxy to get long and we bought the UNG 10/16 $14 calls @ $ .57 today. GOLD $1,954.90 + 11.70, sold off early but didn’t break below the $1905 area I am using as support. It turned back and rallied and closed right near the highs. I did a short update video today: https://youtu.be/KJgk-wmVJ4U I am still a bull on the metal, and we have a September bull call spread on using NEM 65/70 calls with a cost of $1.45, which closed today @ $2.76, and we also added some October 70’s at $1.65 which closed $2.85. BITCOIN: closed $10,320 +305. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $11.52 +.42 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
Alright guys, Ive been working on this for a while and a post on here by a guy describing his portfolio here was the final kick in the ass for me to put this together. I started writing this to summarize what Im doing for my friends who are beginners, and also for me to make some sense of it for myself Hopefully parts of it are useful to you, and also ideally you guys can point out errors or have a suggestion or two. I'm posting this here as opposed to investing or canadianinvestor (blech) because they're just gonna tell me to buy an index fund. This first section is a preamble describing the Canadian tax situation and why Im doing things the way that I am. Feel free to skip it if you dont care about that. Also, there might be mistake regarding what the laws are here so dont take my word for it and verify it for yourself please. So here in Canada we have two types of registered accounts (theres actually more but whatver). There is the TFSA "Tax Free Savings Account", and RRSP "Registered Retirement Savings Account" For the sake of simplicity, from the time you turn 18 you are allowed to deposit 5k (it changes year to year based on inflation etc)in each of them. That "room" accumulates retroactively, so if you haventdone anything and are starting today and you are 30 you have around 60k you can put in each of them. The prevailing wisdom is that you should max out the TFSA first and you'll see why in a minute. TFSA is post tax deposits, with no capital gains or other taxes applied to selling your securities, dividends or anything else. You can withdraw your gains at any time, and the amount that you withdraw is added to the "room" you have for the next year. So lets say I maxed out my TFSA contributions and I take out 20k today, on January of next year I can put back in 20k plus the 5 or whatever they allow for that year. You can see how powerful this is. Theres a few limitations on what is eligable to be held in the TFSA such as bitcoin/bitcoin ETFs, overseas stocks that arent listed on NYSE, TSX, london and a few others. You can Buy to Open and Sell to Close call and put options as well as write Covered Calls. The RRSP is pre-tax deposits and is a tax deferred scheme. You deposit to lower your income tax burden (and hopefully drop below a bracket) but once you retire you will be taxed on anything you pull out. Withdrawing early has huge penalties and isnt recommended. You are however allowed to borrow against it for a down payment as a first time home buyer. The strategy with these is that a youngperson entering the workforce is likely to be in a fairly low tax bracket and (hopefully) earns more money as they get older and more skilled so the RRSP has more value the greater your pre-taxincome is. You can also do this Self Directed. Its not relevant to this strategy but I included it for the sake of context. Non registered accounts ( or any other situation, such as selling commercial real estate etc) is subject to a capital gains tax. In so far as I understand it, you add all your gains and losses up at the end of the year. If its a positive number, you cut that number IN HALF and add it to your regular pre-tax income. So if I made 60k from the dayjob and 20k on my margin account that adds up to 70k that I get taxed on. if its a loss, you carry that forward into the next year. Theres no distinction between long term and short term. Also physical PMs are treated differently and I'll fill that part in later once I have the details down. The reason why all that babble is important is that my broker Questrade, which isnt as good as IB (the only real other option up here as far as Im aware) has one amazing feature that no other broker has: "Margin Power" If you have a TFSA and a Margin account with them, you can link them together and have your securities in the TFSA collateralise your Margin account. Essentially, when it comes to the Maintenance Excess of the Margin Account QT doesnt care if its in the TFSA *or* the Margin! You can see how powerful this is. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ So as you can tell by the title, a lot of this is heavily inspired by Chris Cole's paper "The Allegory of the Hawk and the Serpent". You can read it here: https://www.artemiscm.com/welcome#research Between it, his interviews and my mediocre options skills at the time my mind was blown. Unfortunately I didnt know how to do the Long Volatility part until after the crash in March but I've since then had nothing but time to scour the internet and learn as much as I could. The way I interpret this isnt necessarily "what you should have right now", but what abstracted model they were able to backtest that gave them the best performance over the 90 years. Also, a lot of my portfolio I already had before I started trying to build this. As such my allocations dont match the proportions he gave. Not saying my allocations are better, just showing where they are at this time. I'm going to describe how I do Long Volatility at the end rather than the beginning since the way *I* do it wont make sense until you see the rest of the portflio. Physical PMs 22% I'm not sure wether he intended this to be straight up physical gold or include miners and royalty streaming companies so I will just keep this as physical. I consider Silver to be a non-expiring call option on gold, so that can live here too. I am actually *very* overweight silver and my strategy is to convert a large portion of it to gold (mostly my bars) to gold as the ratio tightens up. If youre into crypto, you can arguably say that has a place in this section. If an ETF makes sense for part of your portfolio, I suggest the Sprott ones such as PHYS. Sprott is an honest business and they actually have the metal they say they have. If you have enough, you can redeem your shares from the Royal Canadian Mint. The only downside is that they dont have an options chain, so you cant sell covered calls etc. Simple enough I suppose. One thing to bear in mind, there is a double edged sword with this class of assets. They're out of the system, theyre nobody's business but your own and theres no counter party. That unfortunately means that you cant lever against it for margin or sell covered calls etc. You can still buy puts though (more on that later) Commodity Trend (CTA) 10% https://youtu.be/tac8sWPZW0w Patrick Ceresna gave a good presentation on what this strategy is. Until I watched this video I just thought it meant "buy commodities". A real CTA does this with futures also so aside from the way he showed, there are two other ETFs that are worth looking at. COM - This is an explicit trend following ETF that follows a LONG/FLAT strategy instead of LONG/SHORT on a pile of commodity futures. So if they get a "sell" signal for oil or soybeans they sell what they have and go to cash. COMT- Holds an assortment of different month futures in different commodities, as well as a *lot* of various related shares in producers. Its almost a one stop shop commodities portfolio. Pays a respectable dividend in December If you want to break the "rules" of CTA, and include equities theres a few others that are also worth looking at KOL- This is a coal ETF. The problems with it are that a lot of the holdings dont have much to do with coal. One of them is a tractor company. A lot of the companies are Chinese so theres a bit of a red flag. Obviously Thermal Coal, the kind used for heating and powerplants isnt in vogue and wont be moving forward...but coking coal is used for steel manufacturing and that ain't going anywhere. The dividend is huge, pays out in December. A very very small position might be worth the risk. Uranium- I'm in URA because thats the only way for me to get exposure to Kazatoprom (#1 producer), which is 20% of the holdings. The other 20% is Cameco (#2 producer)and then its random stuff. Other than that I have shares in Denison which seems like its a good business with some interesting projects underway. I'm still studying the uranium space so I dont really have much to say about it of any value. RSX- Russia large caps. If you dont want to pick between the myriad of undervalued, high dividend paying commodity companies that Russia has then just grab this. It only pays in December but it has a liquid options chain so you can do Covered Calls in the meantime if you want. NTR- Nutrien, canadian company that was formed when two others merged. They are now the worlds largest potash producer. Pretty good dividend. They have some financial difficulties and the stocks been in a downtrend forever. I feel its a good candidate to watch or sell some puts on. I'm trying to come up with a way to play agriculture since this new phase we're going to be entering is likely to cause huge food shortages. EURN and NAT- I got in fairly early on the Tanker hype before it was even hype as a way to short oil but I got greedy and lost a lot of my gains. I pared down my position and I'm staying for the dividend. If you get an oil sell signal, this might be a way to play that still. Fixed Income/Bonds 10% Now, I am not a bond expert but unless youre doing some wacky spreads with futures or whatever... I dont see much reason to buy government debt any more. If you are, youre basically betting that they take rates negative. Raoul Pal of Real Vision is pretty firm in his conviction that this will happen. I know better than to argue with him but I dont see risk/reward as being of much value. HOWEVER, I found two interesting ETFs that seem to bring something to this portfolio IVOL- This is run by Nancy Davis, and is comprised of TIPS bonds which are nominally inflation protected (doubt its real inflation but whatever) overlayed with some OTC options that are designed to pay off big if the Fed loses control of the long end of the yield curve, which is what might happen during a real inflation situation. Pays out a decent yield monthly TAIL- This is a simpler portfolio of 10yr treasuries with ladder of puts on the SPX. Pays quarterly. Equities 58% (shared with options/volatility below) This is where it gets interesting, obviously most of this is in mining shares but before I get to those I found some interesting stuff that I'm intending to build up as I pare down my miners when the time comes to start doing that. VIRT- I cant remember where I saw this, but people were talking about this as a volatility play. Its not perfect, but look at the chart compared to SPY. Its a HFT/market making operation, the wackier things get the more pennies they can scalp. A 4% dividend isnt shabby either. FUND- This is an interesting closed end fund run by Whitney George, one of the principals at Sprott. He took it with him when he joined the company. Ive read his reports and interviews and I really like his approach to value and investing. He's kind of like if Warren Buffett was a gold bug. Theres 120 holdings in there, mostly small caps and very diverse...chicken factories, ball bearings all kinds of boring ass shit that nobody knows exists. Whats crucial is that most of it "needs to exist". Between him, his family and other people at Sprott they control 40% or so of the shares, so they definitely have skin in the game. Generous dividend. ZIG- This is a "deep value" strategy fund, run by Tobias Carlisle. He has a fairly simple valuation formula called the Acquirer's Multiple that when he backtested it, is supposed to perform very well. He did an interview with Chris Cole on real Vision where he discusses how Value and Deep Value havent done well recently, but over the last 100 years have proven to be very viable strategies. If we feel that theres a new cycle brewing, then this strategy may work again moving forward. I want to pause and point out something here, Chris Cole, Nassim Taleb and the guys at Mutiny Fund spend a lot of effort explaining that building a portfolio is a lot like putting together a good basketall team. They need to work together, and pick up each others slack A lot of the ETFs I'm listing here are in many ways portfolios in and of themselves and are *actively managed*. I specifically chose them because they follow a methodology that I respect but I can't do myself because I dont have the skill, temperament or access to. The next one is a hidden gem and ties into this. I'm not sure how much more upside there is in this one but man was I surprised. SII- Sprott Inc. I *never* see people listing this stock in their PMs portfolios. A newsletter I'm subscribed to described this stock as the safest way to play junior miners. Their industry presence, intellectual capital and connections means that they get *the best* private placement deals in the best opportunities. I cant compete with a staff like theirs and I'm not going to try. I bought this at 2.50, and I liked the dividend. Since then they did a reverse split to get on the NYSE and like the day after the stock soared. When it comes to mining ETFS I like GOAU and SILJ the best. None of their major holdings are dead weight companies that are only there because of market cap. I dont want Barrick in my portfolio etc. SGDJ is a neat version of GDXJ. Aside from that my individual miners/royalty companies are (no particular order) MMX SAND PAAS PGM AUM AG MUX RIO- Rio2 on the tsx, not rio tinto KTN KL Options/Volatility: varies So this is where we get to the part about options, Volatility and how I do it. I started out in the options space with The Wheel strategy and the Tastytrade approach of selling premium. The spreads and puts I sell, are on shares listed above, in fact some of those I dont hold anymore. Theres tons of stuff on this in thetagang and options so I wont go into a whole bunch (and you shouldnt be learning the mechanics from me anyway) but theres one thing I want to go over before it gets wild. If I sell a Cash Secured Put, from a risk management perspective its identical to just buying 100 shares of the underlying security. You are equally "Short Vol" as well, it just that with options its a little more explicit with the Greeks and everything. But if I use my margin that I was talking about earlier, then I can still collect the premium and the interest doesnt kick in unless Im actually assigned the shares. But if I sell too many puts on KL or AG, and something happens where the miners get cut down (and lets be real, they all move together) my margin goes down and then I get assigned and kaboom...my account gets blown up So what I need to do, is balance out the huge Short Vol situation in my portfolio, be net Long Vol and directly hedge my positions. Since the overwhelming majority of my equities are all tied to bullion this is actually a very easy thing to do. Backspreads https://youtu.be/pvX5_rkm5x0 https://youtu.be/-jTvWOGVsK8 https://youtu.be/muYjjm934iY So I set this up so the vast majority of my margin is tied up in these 1-2 or even 1-3 ratio put spreads that *I actually put on for a small credit*, and roll them every once in a while. I run them on SLV, and GDX. I keep enough room on my margin so I can withstand a 10% drawdown before it sets off the long end of the spreads and then I can ride it out until it turns around and we keep the PM bull market going. Theres another cool spread I've been using, which is a modified Jade Lizard; if already hold shares, I'll sell a put, sell a covered call, and use some of the premium to buy a longer dated call. Ive been running this on AG mostly. I have a few more spreads I can show you but Im tired now so it'll have to wait for later. As I said multiple times, I do intend to trim these miners later but now isnt the time for that IMO. I'm also monitoring this almost full time since I have an injury and have nothing better to do until I heal :p
$MOGO Aug. 11 Earnings Catalyst - Expected to Beat Q2
$MOGO - Mogo Finance Technology - www.mogo.ca A Canadian, digital based finance company, is a digital challenger to the banks in Canada, empowering consumers with simple solutions to help them manage and control their finances. Partnered with Canada's largest news media company for its marketing campaign, driven to introduce Millennials and Gen-Zed to adopt digital financial independence in a changing, cashless world. What does Mogo provides its consumers? +Spending/Bank Account (MogoSpend/MogoMoney) +Free credit score monitoring and financial reporting +Fraud protection +No fee Bitcoin trading* +Small loans, car loans, mortgages, etc. Stock Trending: Pre-COVID Jan. 7, 2020: $3.00 USD dropped to as low as $.55 a share52-week high: $3.88 Today's low $2.04 as of Aug. 5, 2020 52-week low: $0.55 Aug 5, 2020 volume: 2,169,755 30-day average volume: 1,544,400 Financials:This company is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.07 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +58.8%. (\Note strong despite COVID-19)* Revenues are expected to be $7.68 million, down 37.3% from the year-ago quarter. (\Note COVID-19)* Mogo is expecting to report on its Q2 earnings on August 11, 2020:
Revenue of $10.3 million to $10.5 million;
Adjusted EBITDA of $4.5 million to $5.0 million; and
Positive operating cash flow net of investing activities of $6.5 million to $7.0 million
Company is expected to BEAT earnings. Financial reports:https://investors.mogo.ca/ News: Mogo Announces Preliminary Second Quarter 2020 Financial Results: Business Wire Article Selling Mogo Stock Would Be a Big No-No: Article 7.29.20 Mogo should rally big time, Mackie Research says: Article 3.30.20 Price Targets: C$4.00 Mackie Research ($3.01 USD) Post-COVID C$4.00 Canaccord Genuity ($3.01 USD) Post-COVID ($7.00 USD) Pre-COVID Environmentally Conscious: Mogo has partnered with Vancouver-based Offsetters, a company that specializes in helping companies go green including managing offsetting projects. The current project supported by Mogo is a certified REDD+ initiative focused on protecting the Amazon Rainforest, one of the largest absorbers of CO2 on the planet today, from deforestation.
Gold has the highest SF 62, which means it takes 62 years of production to get current gold stock, for Ether the estimated SF is 58.5 in 2022. After the recent halving, this is 50 for Bitcoin. Important disclaimer: Numbers are rough estimates, I got the data from etherscan and Cointelegraph (see them below) and aggregated in a spreadsheet. This calculation is far from perfect, I'm not a data analyst just a random dude killing the time on Sunday, so pls bear with me. If you have any suggestions to further improve it or you have more exact numbers regarding supply, issuance, pls let me know and I will update the sheet. Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/eth-20-issuance-will-be-2-million-a-year-at-most-says-vitalik https://etherscan.io/charts#marketData
For Trading April 15th Stocks Rally on “Not Terrible” Bank Earnings Oil Fails Again, Trades Sub-$20.00 Today was a winner from last night’s futures action and the “Less than feared” reports from JPM and WFC. It didn’t take long for those two to reverse and head lower. This market cares absolutely nothing for the reality of the current situation. We have a president who thinks he’s a king and will do whatever he wants, whenever he wants and will reopen the economy on command. His base may believe that, but it is 180 degrees opposite of what the science says. The DJIA finished +558.99 (2.39%), NASDAQ +323.32 (3.96%), S&P 500 +84.43 (3.06%), the Russell +25.29 (2.09%) and the DJ Transports +140.77 (1.75%, again a laggard). The DJIA was 24:6 Up on the day with AAPL the big gainer +94 DPs, followed by HD +59, MSFT +56, UNH +47, and JNJ as standout who provided forward guidance and went against the trend and raised their dividend. BA was the big loser on news that it had 150 orders 737MAX cancelled and fell 43 DPs with JPM and AXP also losers. BTW, just an aside, there were 21 splits listed for the balance of April, ALL OF THE REVERSES. These included several of the leveraged ETF names but also included Chesapeake Energy (CHK) with a 1:200 in order to stay on the NYSE. Market internals were about average with NYSE A/D 3:1 and NADSAQ 2.4:1. Volume was a touch below average. Consumer discretionary and information tech were strong with financials and energy weak. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!! Tonight’s closing comment video (new equipment) https://youtu.be/vK9cZB5oYu0 SECTORS: The FAANG names were strong across the board (see below) and bonds were mostly unchanged to a touch lower. On the small cap biopharma group, which has a new name popping up every day we had Sonnet Bio (SONN) another one of those wonderful reverses (1:10 and 1:26) trading $10.80 +5.86 preopen and followed by a run to $16.20 before finishing the day $7.99 +3.05 (61.74%) with no news except “trading halted, trading resumed. MEI Pharma (MEIP) had good news in the receipt of $100MM payment and for its oral, once a day drug for “B-cell malignancies.” I may be entitled to up to $582MM based on successful development. The stock traded 2.91 +1.24 (74.8%) preopen and continued to open $3.05, trade up to $3.64 but selloff a bit to close $2.50 +.83 (49.7%). Last in this group, RedHill Biopharma (RDHL) updated its progress with its drug, Opaganib, approved for compassionate use in Italy and Israel. The COVID-19 treatment has been very successful. In Israel, the treatment of just 2 patients demonstrated “measurable clinical improvement within days of treatment initiation.” Patients needed decreased oxygen requirements, decreased C-reactive protein (CRP) levels and increased lymphocyte levels. One patient was treated in the ICU, considered for intubation and was released within days of treatment. Although it traded as high as $22.22 in late 2015, it has not been reversed, it traded as low as $3.26 in March and worked its way higher and broke to the upside Monday 4/6 over $5.50 and has continued higher. It closed today $7.51 +.63 (9.16%) after hitting $8.24. So, not a one-day wonder, it has moved from $3.26 to $7.51 over the last 2 weeks. Last was ROKU reporting a big gain in revenues this morning. This Lotto tick from $15 in 2017 to trade $176.55 in (9/19) fell back to $58.22 in March finishing the day $106.53 +9.97 (10.33%), almost doubling in just under a month. BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with BIIB +10.82, ABBV +2.88, REGN +7.82, ISRG +20.46 (4.14%), MYL +.29, TEVA +.30, VRTX +12.22 (4.84%), INCY +3.27, ICPT +3.29 LABU +3.10 (11.41%) and IBB $118.55 +4.06 (3.55%). CANNABIS: This group was HIGHER with TLRY +.51, CGC +1.02, CRON +.22, GWPH +1.27, ACB - .004, PYX +.16, NBEV +.39, CURLF +.06, KERN +.10 and MJ $11.70 +.25 (2.18%). DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +15.04, RTX +3.91, GD +1.90, TXT +.06, NOC +9.94, BWXT +.65, TDY +6.27, and ITA $154.67 +4.04 (2.68%). RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.02, JWN -.39, KSS +.24, DDS -1.16, JCP -.01, WMT +3.79, TGT +3.70, TJX +2.37, RL +.53, UAA +.41, LULU +5.93, TPR +.61, CPRI +1.38 (10.58%), and XRT $34.75 +1.47 (4.42%). FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with several big moves vs. the overall market, with GOOGL +54.59, AMZN +116.13 (5.35%), AAPL +14.15 (5.18%), FB +3.42, NFLX +15.51, NVDA +14.64 (5.43%), TSLA +61.70 (9.48%), BABA +5.74, BIDU +2.98, BA -6.33, CAT +2.71, DIS +2.60 and XLK $89.10 +3.71 (4.34%). FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -1.73, JPM -2.36, BAC -.14, MS +.29, C -1.53, PNC -1.46, AIG +.15, TRV +3.57, AXP -1.94, and XLF $22.75 +.22 (.98%). OIL, $20.11 -2.30. Oil was lower overnight and by the NY open this morning the best it could do was $21.92 -39 and started lower until it fell in the late afternoon to trade 19.95 before a small rally to close just over $20.00. Tonight, it is up $ .75. Tonight’s closing comment on the front page discusses this situation and the position we took in SCO. Stocks were lower with the XLE $38.80 unchanged. This is a video update I made midday. https://youtu.be/40obqKxYVek METALS, GOLD: $1,768.90 +7.50. After the recent gains, Gold broke solidly above $1,700 and traded as high as $1788 today. Today was a major move to the upside and the close is the highest since September 2012 and sets up a move towards the highs at $1,800 from 2011. BITCOIN: closed $6950 +140. After we traded in the uptrend, I mentioned this weekend that I felt we’d have to test 67.50 and today we hit 6550 before turning back up. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $7.30 +.05 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
For Trading JULY 23rd EARNINGS GALORE! MSFT & CMG BEAT, STOCKS LOWER TSLA is Eligible for S&P-500 Today’s market got off to a mixed start with DJIA & S&P-500 up slightly and the NASDAQ down. It didn’t take long for the DJIA to move higher dragging the S&P with it but it took most of the day to get the NASDAQ to go up and stay there. At the close the DJIA was +165.44 (.62%), S&P-500 +18.72 (.57%) and the NAZ +25.77 (.24%), the Russell +2.63 (.18%) and the DJ Transports -13. Volume was light and the A/D were 1.5:1 up on the NYSE and 6:5 Down on the NASDAQ. Real estate, Utilities and materials were the strongest and energy and financials the weaker. On the DJIA we were 23:7 higher but without much action and the biggest winner was MCD +39, and GS -42DP’s each. Tomorrow MSFT will probably take 50 DP’s off the averages based on the extended hours trading after the earnings report. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s highly informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!! Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/GwDLF8SI16k SECTORS: Earnings were the feature this week and last night TXN reported and had been up a few, but after the conference call it fell and finished today $132.53 -2.97. SNAP beat top and bottom lines but gave poor guidance for next quarters growth of Daily Active Users (DAU’s) and the stock finished $23.20 -1.54 (6.2%). This afternoon’s numbers were better, but MSFT, which beat, disappointed the market by not “blowing away” the numbers after its recent rise and after a brief move up to just over $212, fell back to $204.51 and the last is $207.30 -4.55. The same was true for CMG, which has doubled since the March lows also beat but after a move to $1193 it too fell back, to 1140 before working its way back to $1167.50 -17.06. Whirlpool (WHR) went the other way with a beat of both earnings and revenues and after finishing the day $146.89 +3.13 ran all the way to 162 before falling back to $152.50 +5.61 for a gain on the day of almost $9.00. And TESLA (TSLA) beat on all metrics and after closing $1592 +24, moved to $1716 before it came back in and finished the day $1657 +$65. The numbers were impressive, especially the cash on hand and the 4th Quarter of earnings, but the most impressive point is that it now qualifies for the S&P 500 index with an 8% weighting. FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with TSN -.29, BGS -.19, FLO -.29, CPB -50, CAG +.17, MDLZ +.51, KHC +.37, CALM -.07, JJSF +.53, SAFM -4.93, HRL _.,03, SJM +1.03, PPC -.08, KR +.37, and PBJ $33.01+.15 (.44%). BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +1.52, ABBV -1.11, REGN +14.15, ISRG +16.80, GILD +.51, MYL -.30, TEVA +.27, VRTX +7.47, BHC -.20, INCY +5.58, ICPT -.58, LABU +2.73, and IBB $145.78 +1.82 (1.26%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.10, CGC -.33, CRON -.06, GWPH -2.96, ACB -.42, NBEV -.32, CURLF -.22, KERN -.29, and MJ $13.22 -.18 (1.34%). DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +17.93, GD +5.10, TXT +.34, NOC +7.31, BWXT +1.19, TDY +4.45, RTX +.69, and ITA $167.22 +2.25 (1.36%). RETAIL: was LOWER with M -.40, JWN -.49, KSS -.86, DDS -1.43, WMT +.17, TGT +2.70, TJX -.07, RL -.16, UAA -.06, LULU +1.33, TPR -.03, CPRI +.07, and XRT $46.85 +.71 (1.54%). FAANG and Big Cap: were MIXED with GOOGL +7.88, AMZN -55.19, AAPL +.30, FB -2.60, NFLX -1.30, NVDA +3.86, TSLA +88.64, BABA -6.20, BIDU -2.72, CMG +6.90, CAT +1.13, MSFT -1.74, BA +.58, DIS +.13, and XLK $108.93 +.47 (.43%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -6.05, JPM -.90, BAC -.15, MS -1.38, C -.13, PNC -1.07, AIG -.07, TRV +3.04, AXP +.21, V +2.34, and XLF $24.31 unchanged. OIL, $40.90 -.02. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, that it is a toss-up for a move in either direction. The stocks were MIXED with XLE $37.79 -.47 (1.23%). GOLD $1,865.10 +21.20. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high of $1,871. I have only the NEM August 65 / 70 spread on in the Gold market. The spread was put on at $1.30 and finished the day @ $1.83. BITCOIN: closed $9,425 +30. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges and today was a good start to move higher. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $10.10 +.23 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
For Trading April 1st A Normal Day? Late Selloff No Real Features Today was as close to a normal day as any I’ve seen in the last 6 weeks. Futures were all over the place last night and opened to the downside this morning but before 10:00 we were back on the upside banging against the 2,640 level for the fourth day in a row. Support around 2,575 seems to be present and we rallied off it several times. However, today’s pickup to a slight new high for the week and closing on the low of the day leads me to the conclusion that we are running out of steam. This week’s range is a meager 95 S&P points, and the Friday close of $2,541 may be an important number. If we go no higher and get back into last week’s range (2191 to 2637) we can head back towards the area of a necessary, test of the current bottom (and I use that term with extreme caution). The volume continues to shrink daily, with the absence of the normal “end of quarter” rebalancing trading. Market internals were just okay with NYSE losers with a slight edge and NASDAQ 1:1. Volume was average for an average day, as were treasury prices. Most of the economic numbers are pre-COVID-19 and I think useless. The DJIA was considerably weaker than the market with 25 down and only 5 up. The only big (?) gainer was CAT on the news that the Great Orange might suspend or delay tariff charges, and it was up only $29 DPs. This has become an incredibly hard market to trade since the IV has become so extreme that if you want to trade an SPY position (as I did today) in order to make even a short-term trade the option prices are so absurd as to skew the risk to unreasonable levels. The example today was a simple one. At a price on the SPY around $259.50, the SPY 4/8 240 puts were $3.30…that’s a week from tomorrow, and $20 out of the money, for $3.30.If for any reason, volatility subsides, these thing will lose a major piece of its premium. If you’re right, and it happens fast, great, however, if it takes more than a day or two, to get started, or moves up, even though it’s not what I expect, it just withers away. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 800 members. SECTORS: Other names in the news: Since it’s late, I’m going right to two of my favorite topics: Today’s Disaster Du Jour was Amarin Corp (AMRN), a biotech that got an unfavorable ruling on patent litigation related to a potential generic version of Vascepa. The company said it will not affect worldwide patent protection. The stock received several downgrades from Oppenheimer, Goldman, and Stifel, and after closing $13.58 yesterday, it opened $4.22 and finished the day $4.00 -9.58 (70.54%) On the upside we had two winners with Vivus (VVUS) introducing a remote monitoring platform for use when there is Social Distancing. VVUS is a long way down from its highs in the last decade but came to life today and after closing $ .95 yesterday with an open of $4.00 and finished the day $3.60 +2.65 (279%). But the HOMERUN OF THE DAY goes to SGBX, maker of modular units for easy and quick construction received a MOU from Transcend Onsite Care to use their technology for container-based modules for medical care. After closing on Monday @ $2.06, it opened $3.80, traded $9.74 and closed $9.30 +7.24 (351.46%) before continuing higher in late trading hitting $12.75 and is currently $10.35. BIOPHARMA: was MIXED with TEVA the big winner @ 8.87 +.36 (4.23%), REGN +13.90 (2.94%), VRTX +6.03 (2.06%) and LABU -1.09 (4.72%), and IBB $106.35 -2.;49 (2.29%), CANNABIS: This group was MIXED CRON -.69 (10.88%) the biggest loser, while CURLF -.22 (5.3%) and MJ $11.40 -.15 (1.3%). DEFENSE: was LOWER with RTN -10.23 (7.24%), UTX -4.25 (4.32%), NOC -12.73 (4.06%) and ITA $142.90-4.67 (3.16%). RETAIL was LOWER with the group down across the board. M -.53 (9.87%), JWN -.69 (4.37%), KSS -1.60 (9.98%), DDS -4.23 (10.27%), WMT -2.00, TGT -3.68 (3.83%), TJX -1.33 (2.8%), RL -4.75 (6.68%), UAA -.51 (5.33%), LULU -6.56 (3.38%), TPR -.27, CPRI -.50 and XRT $29.78 -.24 (.80%). FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL +.69, AMZN -25.95, AAPL -4.21, FB -1.20, NFLX +1.04, NVDA -6.09, TSLA +13.37, BABA +.23, BIDU +1.05, BA -5.78, CAT +3.49, DIS -4.30 (4.31%) and XLK $79.48 -2.42 (2.95%). FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -7.12 (4.45%), JPM -4.75 (5.08%), BAC -1.07 (4.85%), MS -1.51 (4.33%), C -2.63 (6.57%), PNC -6.37 (6.31%), AIG -1.81 -1.81, TRV -5..59 (5.45%), AXP -6.14 (6.8%) and XLF $20.82 -.59 (2.76%). OIL, $20.48 +.39. The stocks were MIXED even with the price of Oil trading higher. NBL was the big winner +.58 (10.92%), DNR -.18 (8.5%), and XLE $28.72+.10 (.35%). METALS, GOLD: $1,596.60 -46.60 After the recent gains, Gold has failed to break through the highs around $1700 and have fallen back. I will reassess and look for a new entry point. BITCOIN: closed $6475 + 95. We traded in another short range again today and finished mid-range on the day. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $7.12 +.07 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
The Dow fell 973.65, or 4.44%, to 20,943.51, the Nasdaq lost 339.52, or 4.41%, to 7,360.58, and the S&P 500 declined 114.09, or 4.41%, to 2,470.50. The stock market retreated more than 4% to start the second quarter on Wednesday, as President Trump warned that the next two weeks will be "very painful" in terms of coronavirus fatalities. The S&P 500 (-4.4%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-4.4%), and Nasdaq Composite (-4.4%) each fell 4.4%. The Russell 2000 underperformed with a 7.1% decline. In COVID-19 news, The Hill reported that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said he will sign an executive order requiring the state's residents to limit their movement outside of their homes. DeSantis has faced intense criticism for refusing to issue a stay-at-home order, the report noted. Meanwhile, the latest data from the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering shows there are now 911,308 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 45,497 deaths due to the disease. The coronavirus task force on Tuesday estimated that deaths attributed to COVID-19 could total 100,000-240,000 in the U.S. with daily deaths projected to peak in two weeks. To help contain the outbreak, and hopefully bring these figures down, Florida, Nevada, and Pennsylvania joined the growing list of states to issue 'stay at home' orders for 30 days. Original assumptions made by the medical community were based on the data coming out of China, which the U.S. intelligence community said underrepresented the real number of cases and deaths in the country, according to Bloomberg. The White House's projections, based on new data being released every day, had the market worried about the social and psychological effects on the economy. In U.S. data, ADP reported private payrolls fell "only" 27,000 in March, which was not as bad as many had forecast. However, ADP acknowledged the data don't really reflect the realities on the ground as a lot of the firings have taken place after the week that ended its survey. The ISM manufacturing index dropped 1.0 point to 49.1 in March, which was also not as bad as feared. Markit's manufacturing PMI was revised down to 48.5 in the final print for March. That was a little lower than the 49.2 flash reading for the month and down 2.2 points from February's 50.7 reading. Construction spending dropped 1.3% in February. In China, the Caixin manufacturing PMI climbed 9.8 points to 50.1 in March, almost fully recovering from the 10.8 point drop to the record low of 40.3 in February. The better than expected bounce is in line with the surprising 16.3 point jump in the official index to 52.0. In turn, no S&P 500 sector was spared in today's sell-off with ten sectors losing at least 3.0%, including 6.1% declines in the real estate and utilities sectors. The consumer staples sector performed relatively better with a 1.8% decline. In M&A news, TMUS announced that it has officially completed its merger with S to create the new T-Mobile. The company also announced that with close of the merger, it has successfully completed its long-planned CEO transition from John Legere to Mike Sievert ahead of schedule. Among the notable losers was XRX, -7.1% withdrawing its offer to acquire HPQ, -14.5%, MAR, -7.6% disclosing a data breach that affected 5.2 million customers, and M, -9.8% being removed from the S&P 500. Shares of GM fell 7.3% after the automaker announced that it delivered 618,335 vehicles in the U.S. in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of about 7% compared to a year ago. "The industry experienced significant declines in March due to the outbreak of COVID-19," noted GM in its sales announcement. Meanwhile, FCAU reported a 10% decline in its first quarter sales to 446,768 vehicles, also noting that "the strong momentum in January and February was more than offset by the negative economic impact of the coronavirus in March." Additionally, Toyota North America (TM) reported that sales in March fell 36.9% on a volume basis and 31.8% on a daily selling rate basis year-over-year. Among the noteworthy gainers was KGC, which rose over 11% after it said its mines continue to operate and have not materially been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The company also withdrew guidance for fiscal 2020 in light of the outbreak. Also higher was AMRN, which surged 24.5% after Jefferies analyst Michael Yee hosted a conference call with life sciences patent lawyer Jacob Sherkow to discuss the Vascepa patent litigation. During the call, Sherkow said that he believes Amarin has a 50% chance to win an appeal and a more than 80% chance of getting an injunction. In the oil market, the Wall Street Journal reported that Cherony7 is scheduled to meet Friday with the heads of some of the largest U.S. oil companies to discuss government measures to help the industry weather an unprecedented oil crash. The meeting is to take place at the White House and will include Trump, XOM Chief Executive Darren Woods, CVX Chief Executive Mike Wirth, OXY Chief Executive Vicki Hollub and Harold Hamm, executive chairman of CLR, according to the Journal. Stocks in Asia were lower on Wednesday as a private survey showed Chinese manufacturing activity expanding slightly in March. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 led losses among the region’s major markets as it dropped 4.5% to close at 18,065.41.
The dollar advanced on Wednesday, with markets staring at what looked likely to be one of the worst economic contractions in decades as the world confronts the coronavirus pandemic. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.6% to 99.65, approaching yesterday's high.
EUUSD: -0.9% to 1.0933
GBP/USD: -0.4% to 1.2373
USD/CNH: +0.6% to 7.1290
USD/JPY: -0.3% to 107.16
U.S. Treasuries ended the midweek session on a mixed note for the second day in a row, but shorter tenors underperformed today while longer tenors recovered yesterday's losses. The long end outperformed from the start after Treasury futures rallied overnight. That rally took place as most global equity markets faced renewed selling pressure to begin Q2. 10s and 30s built on their opening gains during the first two hours of trade, while the 2-yr note headed in the opposite direction before rallying toward its high into the close. Interestingly, the late push in the 2-yr note took place as longer tenors slipped to fresh lows.
2-yr: +2 bps to 0.22%
3-yr: UNCH at 0.27%
5-yr: -1 bp to 0.37%
10-yr: -6 bps to 0.64%
30-yr: -6 bps to 1.29%
Gold prices firmed on Wednesday as investors sought safe-haven assets after somber U.S. economic data exacerbated fears of a economic downturn amid increasing lockdowns and other restrictions globally to combat the coronavirus pandemic.
WTI crude: -1.0% to $20.32/bbl
Gold: -0.1% to $1592.40/ozt
Copper: -2.3% to $2.176/lb
U.S. grain and soybean futures fell in tandem with a sinking stock market on Wednesday, with wheat down more than 3% in its largest slide in more than a month after nearly two weeks of gains fueled by coronavirus grocery stockpiling. Soybeans fell more than 2%, the most in 2-1/2 weeks, and most corn contracts posted fresh life-of-contract lows as worries over burdensome supplies weighed on prices.
Following Bitcoin’s bout of consolidation within the mid-$6,000 region, the benchmark cryptocurrency has seen a slight decline that has led it down towards the support that has been established around $6,000.
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